Years of Failed Arctic Sea Ice Predictions

Over the past few decades, geographers, oceanographers, geophysicists, glaciologists, climatologists, geoengineers, and Al Gore –ha– have shown great interest in Arctic Ocean sea ice extent.

Many of these experts envisaged an ice-free Arctic Ocean.

Needless to say, each and every one of these forecasts has been proven hopelessly wrong, yet most of the scientists behind them have retained their positions and credibility within their respective fields.

This is an indication of how deep the narrative runs.

Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski 

‘Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice,’ reported the BBC back in 2007. ‘Their latest modelling indicates that northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.’

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski from the Department of Oceanography of the US Navy predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the summer of 2013.

Maslowski added that his prediction was on the conservative side, too: “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007. So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

The BBC boasted that Maslowski used ‘supercomputers to crunch through possible future outcomes.’

The broadcaster also used the below image in their article, I assume in an attempt to evoke an emotional response:

NASA’s Jay Zwally

Also back in 2007, we had NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally’s prediction: “The Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”

Zwally was quoted in many publications at the time: “The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming. Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines,” he said.

Prof. David Barber

In 2008, University of Manitoba professor David Barber prophesied: “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history]. This is a very dramatic change in the High Arctic climate system.”

British AGW rag The Independent ran the ‘Exclusive’ story: ‘It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year,’ reads the opening paragraph, which is all you get to see unless you pay… which I didn’t.

In reality, the 2008 summer minimum turned out to have more ice than in 2007.

NSIDC Director Mark Sereezer

In 2010, Mark Sereezer, the newly appointed senior scientist at the US government’s Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colo. was famously quoted as saying: “the Arctic is screaming.”

Geographer Serreze, who now holds the job as NSIDC director, warned that global warming will render the Arctic ice free by the summer of 2030 — a claim picked up by the likes of the, but one that shows no indications of materializing.

Below was the state of Arctic Sea Ice volume during the 2020 minimum.

Data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) reveal levels were within the average range:


Prof. Peter Wadhams

In 2012, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge (UK), Professor Peter Wadhams, foretold of a complete collapse of the Arctic ice sheet by 2015-2016 — predictably leapt on by

‘As sea ice shrinks to record lows, Prof Peter Wadhams warns a ‘global disaster’ is now unfolding in northern latitudes,’ reads the article’s subheading.

‘One of the world’s leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years,’ continued the piece. ‘In what he calls a “global disaster” now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded, Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University calls for “urgent” consideration of new ideas to reduce global temperatures: “Climate change is no longer something we can aim to do something about in a few decades time, and we must not only urgently reduce CO2 emissions but must urgently examine other ways of slowing global warming, such as the various geoengineering ideas that have been put forward.”‘

Once again though, real-world observations ended-up leaving a modern climate researcher with egg on their face, because far from reaching the forecast record lows, the year 2016 actually saw the quickest Arctic refreeze ever recorded, with the sea ice extent advancing 405,000 m2 (1.05 million km2) in just three weeks.

The DMI actually noted that that rate of refreezing was the fastest since its daily records began in 1987.

That contradicting reality didn’t stop Professor Wadhams cashing in on his scaremongering, however. His book “A Farewell To Ice,” in which he again repeated the assertion that the polar region would ice-free within just a few years, was published in 2016 to the predictably-blind critical acclaim of AGW propaganda rags such as The Guardian.

There are hundreds-more dire Sea Ice predictions that have either expired or are soon to expire, but the mainstream media is yet to offer a single retraction; in fact, many of the failures are still up online, for all to see.

Let us not forget that overstuffed doormat of a man Al Gore in all this:

This is the danger when politics, and the funding it brings, drives science, instead of the age-old standards of ideas, logic, testing, and real-world observations.

The above list of fails is a sad indictment of modern science, yet the researches involved have all retained their positions and credibility — how? Because Global Warming is a powerful political tool. It will prop you up and support you if you follow the rules, but it will tear you down the minute you dare to question it.

AGW is being used as propaganda to enforce literally whatever those string-pulling elites deem fit.

And unfortunately, the masses are too distracted, far too busy slaving away at 9-5’s (in order to keep their heads above water–ironically), to stop and observe these now decades-worth of scientific discrepancies.

The catastrophe is always “X” amount of years away, and when that “X”-date does uneventfully come and go, the doomsday deadline quietly gets pushed on, to scam the next generation.

AOC says we now have 10 years left to avert the end of the world.

I wonder what new power-hungry know-nothing know-it-all politician we’ll be hearing from in 2031, when AOC’s prediction also uneventfully passes us by. Although by then, a far more likely climatic reality will be upon us: global cooling, as decades of low solar activity would by then of had a cumulative impact on terrestrial temperatures:

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

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17 Thoughts to “Years of Failed Arctic Sea Ice Predictions”

  1. Franklin Russell

    Its always a huge mistake to mix politics and weather prognostication.

    1. Vlrdngr

      It’s always a huge mistake to mix politics with anything whatsoever.

    2. James Walter

      They mixed money making with weather prog. And we will all fall through the ice, no matter how thick it is

  2. I have a big question. Since the global average temperature anomaly for April was at -0.05 deg. C, why some posts, especially on Facebook, show us that the average temperature for April was at +0.2 deg.c?? And these posts say that only one month can’t stop the climate change. Who is wrong???

    1. Roland Salomonsson

      Those who support the climate fraud, allways use a “climate model” to calculate. And not any climate model have ever, except the russian model, presented a result near the truth. They don´t take the raw data and calculate, They also use sets of supercomputers for calculations. AS ALLWAYS WHEN USING IT, SHIT IN GETS SHIT OUT!

      1. JaKo

        Me guess; if the calculations were made on logarithmic rules and research grants amounted to a fraction of yearly academic salaries, the science would still pride herself with integrity.
        How cheap are the souls of “scientists?” Me thinks even cheaper than those of politicians…
        Cheers, JaKo

    2. Matt Dalby

      It all depends on which data set is used (satellites or surface thermometers) and which period is used as the base. For example some AGW promoting organisations, e.g. NASA use 1961-1990 or even earlier periods since this gives a higher anomaly (since no one doubts that a certain amount of, largely natural, warming occoured in the last 30-40 years.). All datasets agree that there has been cooling in the last 6 months or so, however in the short term natural variation, especially El Nino/La Nna’s will always be greater than any long term trend, whether that trend is alleged AGW or Solar cooling.
      A better guide is to look at long term trends. This was recently done by Dr Roy Spencer, and highlighted on electroverse about a week ago, and showed the 40 year trend in satellite data was half that predicted by computer models. Therefore the conclusion is that the models are at least partly wrong and shouldn’t be used to base political decisions on.
      Even comparing long term trends isn’t ideal as there is no reason to think that past trends will simply continue in the future (unless there are robust scientific reasons to believe they will). As electroverse constantly point out the climate is cyclical not linear. However since there was warming from roughly 1975-2015 the long term trend will continue to be positive for at least another 15-20 years whatever solar cooling we see in this time period.

      1. Roland Salomonsson

        30 years period as defenition of “Climat” decided of IPCC is very sly choose. That happens to correspond with the natural variations of weather-types. If you choose to start the calculations when it´s the coolest year, then of course there will be a large “warming” following.

        That´s why it´s not acceptable to start a calculaion period less than 60 years long.

        Still the global temperature is far cooler than it was during the 20-ies or 30-ies. Most of those who remember those days are dead by now.

        1. James Walter

          60 years is a bit better, but that is not a climate cycle, still way too short. I would think a little ice age, 400 years, would be the smallest climate cycle

  3. Crispin Pemberton-Pigott

    Made the predictions with a “supercomputer” eh? Maybe that explains why they are now able to get the wrong answer faster than they used to.

  4. Xnightx

    “with the sea ice extent advancing 405,000 m2 (1.05 million km2) in just three weeks.”

    Not m2 but mi2 or sq mi (English is not my mother tongue).

  5. Mike From Au

    The structure above the icebreaker looks like it could be supporting a turf/lawn/wheat grass growing type area to absorb carbon dioxide to make the vessel greener or for carbon offsets 🙂

  6. Roland Salomonsson

    If I remember correct, Tony Heller, have shown how using only raw-data will display a Global Cooling since the forties!
    The Climate-Gaters have tried to hide the original raw-data and replace the originals with modeled data. The frauds have not been able to change the archives of old newspapers though. There are other kind of frauds too.

  7. Dave Huff

    Did I miss something? It’s 2021 and the arctic is still not free of ice…..

  8. James Walter

    What about Putin? He is no fool, but he is touting the northern passage and building huge new ice breakers, which could be used for strategic placements and patrols, and war as well

    1. prioris

      It illustrates how all the countries march in lockstep with the grand lies. Like China, they even hopped on board with global warming lie. Those powere structures have way more in common with each other than with their own populations.

      1. James Walter

        Ok they just give lip service and wait, knowing that this global warming BS in the West will destroy the West

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