Without Human Emissions, CO2 Levels Would Be 392ppm

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims human emissions raised the carbon dioxide level from 280 ppm to 410 ppm, or 130 ppm. Physics proves this claim is impossible.

Mankind is now accused of emitting 34 gigatons of CO2 a year — but this simply isn’t the case, and is the main error in the IPCC Bern model.

CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by a range of different mechanisms, but the residence time is just 4 years.

Residence time = amount of CO2 in atmosphere / amount removed per year.

Using the IPCC carbon cycle model, that is 820Gt / 203Gt/yr = 4 years.

Man made CO2 stays in the atmosphere the same length of time as natural CO2 — this is called the Equivalence Principal and was pointed out in 1992 when the IPCC first came up with the Bern model, but it was ignored.

Without human emissions, atmospheric CO2 levels would be 392ppm.

From a scientific paper from 1993:

“The short residence time suggests that anthropogenic emissions contribute only a fraction of the observed atmospheric rise, and that other sources need be sought.”


Further Explanation

Contrary to IPCC claims, human emissions have not caused all the increase in carbon dioxide since 1750.

Human emissions do not continually add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, but rather cause a flow of carbon dioxide through the atmosphere. The flow adds a constant equilibrium level, not a continuing increasing level, of carbon dioxide.

Present human emissions add an equilibrium level of 18 ppm, which is the product of human carbon dioxide inflow of 4.5 ppm per year multiplied by the carbon dioxide residence time of 4 years. Present natural emissions add an equilibrium level of 392 ppm, to get today’s 410 ppm.

If human emissions continue as at present, these emissions will add no additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere in the future. If all human emissions were stopped, and nature stayed constant, it would remove only 18 ppm. The natural level of 392 ppm would remain.

Inflow into the Atmosphere is 5 percent human and 95 percent natural. The Model shows the Atmosphere will be a fingerprint of Inflow. This contradicts the IPCC claim that human emissions cause 30 percent Atmosphere carbon dioxide.

There is no “permanent” remainder of human or natural carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. If inflow is turned off, the corresponding equilibrium level will go to zero. The level will approach zero according to the 1/e residence time of 4 years.

The ratio of human to natural carbon dioxide in the atmosphere equals the ratio of their inflows, independent of residence time.

IPCC’s Bern model violates the Equivalence Principle, does not reproduce the carbon-14 data, and predicts that 1000 years of “natural emissions” will permanently increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 15,000 ppm.

Since IPCC’s Bern model is a curve-fit to the output of climate models, the inaccurate and invalid Bern Model proves IPCC’s climate claims are wrong.

For a more detailed look at ‘Why Human CO2 Does Not Change Climate’ from, click here.


To conclude, here are Professor Morner’s conclusions about CO2 effects:

CO2 as main driver of climate change is a serious mistake. Indeed, it is based on “an elementary and grave error that have until now provided the pretext for misplaced worldwide concern about climate change”.

Human emissions add only 18 ppm and nature adds 392 ppm of today’s 410 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, implying that the temperature effect of human emissions is very small to negligible.


Grand Solar Minimum

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