Wheat Futures Surge After Russia Strikes Ukrainian Grain Terminal
From bad to worse: Global grain markets surged higher Monday after a Russian attack on silos at the Black Sea port of Mykolaiv raised further doubts that Moscow will allow the export of Ukrainian crops.
“Traders are losing confidence Russia will live up to their expectations to allow Ukraine to export grain, after two warehouses with sunflower meal at Nikatera (Ukraine) were hit by a rocket over the weekend,” Terry Reilly, senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International, told Agricensus.
The Russian shelling of Mykolaiv is “putting the lie to the Russians about allowing grain to be exported out of Ukraine through the Black Sea — if you don’t have a loading terminal, you can’t load any ships,” said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man.
While in France –the world’s sixth largest wheat producer– drought has led to concerns about the size of the country’s wheat crop. Also, centra; regions of France were hit by “a major hail storm … with tennis-ball-sized hail falling on the wheat fields and vegetables, with bad damage suspected to the crop,” continued Sernatinger.
“Today [Monday] is a holiday in France, so the cooperatives are not making any statements on the damage, but commercials feel like it was substantial, pushing up Matif futures and US futures are responding,” said Sernatinger.
Slow planting across much of North America due to persistent cold is only inflaming global food insecutrity concerns.
It’s a similar story in South America, too.
So that’s the top 8 global wheat producers all experiencing serious growing woes this season.
It stands that almost everywhere you look, if it isn’t the weather reducing yields then it’s us humans shooting ourselves in the foot via conflict and/or food/energy nationalism. This ends in famine. Perhaps not for every Western nation, but certainly for most import nations, top of the list being Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, and perhaps even China–which would explain the Chinese regime buying-up what seems like every available bushel on the market right now. Take heed. A years food supply is a must.
A quick word on energy shortages: Shippers coping with record-high fuel surcharges have been advised to simply bear with it until more (and cheaper) crude oil enters the markets–which isn’t expected until 2023 at the earliest.
“The price of fuel has a big impact on the shipping and shipping logistics industries,” Ross Harris, CEO at A3 Freight Payment, said recently. “As costs continue to rise, carriers are having to take losses or raise their shipping prices … Simply stated, higher fuel costs cause product inflation and affect every aspect of production transportation along the way,” added Harris.
The Energy Department’s most recent data showed inventories of distillates, a category that includes diesel, are 22% below the five-year average for this time of year. That type of distillate is also used for home heating oil; therefore, if a cold winter hits, prices will remain high.
The Russian-Ukraine war as well as OPEC’s refusal to pump more oil to make up for Russian supply shortages mean little hope for a quick fix to high oil prices, reports logisticsmgmt.com.
“People should be very concerned,” economist Philip K. Verleger Jr. told the Los Angeles Times. “This will ripple through the economy.”
It already has. Prices of everything from new homes to groceries to just about anything hauled by a truck are affected by diesel costs. Recently, retail giants Wal-Mart, Target and Costco cited higher truck shipping costs for reduced quarterly earnings.
Summer Cold Sweeps East Asia
A summer cold spell is invading East Asia this week, bringing anomalous chills and snow to the Koreas.
North Korea has seen snow settling at below 2,000m (6,550ft) — an incredibly rare feat for June.
While it’s been exceptionally cold for the time of year in Japan, particularly across the northern province of Hokkaido. Here, Arctic air riding anomalously-far south on the back of a weak and wavy meridional jet stream has held maximum temperatures to between 6 to 8C (42.8 to 46.4F) in coastal areas such Omu and Nemuro.
While Japan’s capital, Tokyo, only reached 18C (64.4F) on Monday–some 8C below the average.
“Recession and Paradigm Shift”
Ted Pick, co-president of investment bank Morgan Stanley, has joined bankers and investors from Jamie Dimon to Carl Icahn in warning that economic swings between fears of inflation and fears of contraction will likely result in a recession.
“There is a fire narrative, and that fire narrative is inflation. And then there is a bit of an ice narrative, that recession talk, hard landing or soft landing,” he said. “We’ll have these periods where it feels awfully fiery, and other periods where it feels icy, and clients need to navigate around that.”
It is likely that the U.S. will enter a recession, but we likely will not know for sure until next fall, added Pick, who is forecasting an economic downturn if “inflation and inflationary expectations are cementing” by next fall, as this would force the Fed to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates even higher.
Pick continues by saying that the U.S. is on the precipice of an entirely different business cycle which will be a departure from the loose monetary policy of the last 15 years, an event he calls an inevitable upheaval of the economy due to a record bull market run that was powered by a prolonged period of low borrowing rates.
“It’s an extraordinary moment,” added pick. “It signals a paradigm shift: the end of 15 years of financial repression and the next era to come … We’ll be having this conversation for the next 12, 18, 24 months,” said Pick, who is convinced that a change is coming, and a new business cycle with different rules is set to emerge in the old one’s wake (the Great Reset?).
This is a true confluence of catastrophes.
The timing is not coincidental.
They are orchestrating this collapse and are facilitating ‘the new business cycle’. It will be in their image, will serve only them, and will leave the masses at the mercy of a new form of technocratic tyranny that will be nigh-on impossible to reject: biometric IDs, digital ration cards, and a new mandatory digital currency.
Saying all this, and although I am indeed seeing hyper inflation and the next Great Depression as being just around the corner, what I see first is a panicked inflow into equities (and crypto) — that parabolic finale or blow-off top that all markets experience before a collapse. And so it stands, if we start seeing the markets, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, firing off into record-breaking territory over the coming weeks/months then this will, perhaps counter-intuitively, confirm to me that the top is near.
For a detailed dive into all that, check out the link below:
And take this for whatever it’s worth, but filings reveal that Nancy Pelosi just fired millions of her own US dollars into the stock market. She clearly believes a rally is coming. And she should know. She has a history of knowing. “She’s 82yo, yet trades options better than a Citadel algo running on a dedicated $300m mainframe computer,” tweeted Wasteland Capital on Monday:
Again, heed the warnings/instructions handed down by the elites. Whether that be to prepare for food shortages and/or crippling inflation–as the world’s bankers are forecasting; or in a near-term market blow-up–that Nancy is betting on.
They know what’s coming. They often broadcast it in plain sight. Depressingly though, the masses are too preoccupied with holding candlelight vigils for the Ukraine, arranging climate marches to save the planet, and queuing around the block for their fifth booster shot to pay any meaningful attention to what’s really going on.
For those interested, Pelosi recently purchased 100 call options on Apple with a strike price of $80 and expiring on the June 16, 2023. In addition, on May 24 Pelosi disclosed the purchase of another 50 call options on Apple, again with a strike price of $80 and expiring June 16, 2023. Also on May 24, the House Speaker disclosed 10 call options on Microsoft bearing a strike price of $180, again expiring on June 16, 2023. Unsurprisingly, Pelosi is up on all of these trades.
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