Crop Loss Extreme Weather GSM 

Weekend Freeze to Decimate Grain Harvests: “Substantial Production Cuts” on the cards

Historic winter weather will descend deep into North America this weekend, with the northern plains and the northwestern corn belt on course to be absolutely BURIED.

Snow totals as high as FOUR FEET are expected in the Midwest, with the snow line possibly even encroaching as far south as New Mexico and Texas. While reports from Canada reveal that the cold and snow is already grinding harvests to a “virtual standstill” up there.

Expert INTL FCStone economist, Arlan Suderman has warned that this freeze event will likely lower corn yields once the kernel’s starch line is only halfway to the black layer.

This could be one of the most challenging harvest seasons in quite some time for U.S. farmers, especially when you consider how much of the nation’s crop was planted extremely late following 2019’s cold and wet spring, and how substantial summer/fall flooding has compounded the misery.

Suderman says we could be looking at substantial production cuts:

“There would be about nineteen and a half million [immature] acres, as I calculate it … and it would have varying levels of loss. Some of that loss would be just a few percentage points. Some of it would be much more significant, all the way up to 40 to 50 percent loss and everything in between. It adds up to the possibility of 300 to 400 bushels of grain that could be lost.”

The historic forecast drove grain futures to a two month high in trading yesterday, Tues, Oct 8.


Immature soybeans are also at risk of losing yield when the freeze hits.

Again due to the later growing season this year, analysts say the 2019 production numbers won’t be in until January 2020 or perhaps even later.

According to the National Weather Service, winter storm watches are in effect across the Midwest this weekend. Up to FOUR FEET of early season snow is expected, which arrives on the heels of the historic totals that fell just two weeks ago (which NOAA still hasn’t release the data on btw).

The cold times are returning, in line with historically low solar activity.


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[Featured Image: Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press]

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2 Thoughts to “Weekend Freeze to Decimate Grain Harvests: “Substantial Production Cuts” on the cards”

  1. Mark H

    “It adds up to the possibility of 300 to 400 bushels of grain that could be lost.”

    Is there a multiplier missing here? Maybe 300-400 Million bushels? 300 bushels would fit in a small truck.

    1. Cap Allon

      Agreed, thanks for pointing that out.

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