Extreme Weather GSM 

Models Gain Confidence: UK and Ireland on course for Heavy Early Season Snow this Week

The Global Forecast System (GFS) is gaining confidence — a potentially historic bout of early-season cold and snow is forecast to wallop the UK & Ireland this Friday evening, October 25.

Scottish Mountains received an early taster of what’s to come yesterday, Sunday, October 20, when “lots of snow” fell on Cairngorm Mountain, as reported by @UKsnow_updates on twitter:


And now latest GFS runs appear to be doubling-down on the next and potentially historic bout of biting Arctic air, on course to hit Northern Ireland, Ireland, Scotland and even Northern England later this week.

According to the models, we’re now just 90hrs out.

All-time monthly low temperature records are under-threat with the mercury set to sink well-below freezing in some sheltered northern spots, and as much as 16C below the seasonal-average across Southern Ireland:

GFS TEMP ANOMALY (4C to 16C below average)


The Arctic air will deliver a potent weather front, too.

Heavy snow, for the time of year, is expected across Scotland and Northern Ireland beginning Friday evening, but it’s the island of Ireland which looks set to cop the worst of it. And even the higher elevations of Northern England could be on the end of some impressive totals.

All-time October snowfall records are also under threat, as over 20 cm (8 inches) could accumulate:

GFS TOTAL SNOW (CM) OCT 25 thru OCT 26


All this powder will add to the early falls seen across North America of late, along with the record amounts of pack that survived 2019’s summer melt season.

Against all the global warming odds, this years Total Snow Mass for the NH is off to a colossal head start:

Total snow mass for the NH comfortably above the average.


The cold times are returning in line with historically low solar activity.

NASA has recently revealed this next solar cycle (25) will be “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.


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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

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