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Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Underway; Christchurch Suffers Chilly Lows And Record-Wet Feb; + Midwest and Northeast’s Winter To Extend Into March

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Underway

The GFS and its ensembles are forecasting a reduction in westerly zonal winds over the North Pole as we enter March.

The higher latitudes have experienced consistently strong zonal winds to date, and, as a result, below-average temperatures have prevailed at the North Pole, which helped drive Arctic sea ice to its largest extent since 2008, and before that 2004.

A strong Polar Vortex means a strong polar circulation, which usually keeps cold air locked up in the Arctic, and, in turn, results in milder winter conditions for the United States and Europe. Conversely, a weak (wavy) Polar Vortex has a much harder time containing the Arctic’s cold air, and often funnels it south into the lower latitudes.

weather-forecast-north-hemisphere-what-is-strong-weak-polar-vortex-winter-pattern-update


The strength of the polar vortex is most often measured by the power of the winds that it produces. This is typically done by measuring the zonal (west to east) wind speeds around the polar circle (60°N latitude).

Looking at the chart below, we can see that the zonal winds have been strong this winter season (to March). This explains the generally milder conditions enjoyed across the lower latitudes, particularly across Europe. But now, those westerly zonal winds are set to reduce sharply over the coming few days suggesting a rapid weakening of the polar vortex. The runs are in agreement (seethe plunging green line) — a sudden stratospheric warming event could be building:


Here’s a tidier chart (using similar data):

polar-vortex-10mb-wind-speed-zonal-mean-cllimatology-forecast-cfs-gfs


At 10hPa, the stratospheric polar vortex spins high above the weather; but it is still directly connected to the lower levels. It is tied to higher levels, too — and on that note, embedded below is the zonal mean temperature at the North Pole’s higher 50hPa level. There has seen a steady cooling trend observed up there this season, one that picked up the pace in the past few weeks, dropping to record cold levels in mid-February (pink line). Accepting atmospheric levels are connected, this record cold has the potential to permeate down through the layers in the near future.

stratospheric-polar-vortex-50mb-winter-season-2022-zonal-average-temperature-anomaly-nasa-analysis-graph


Likewise, when the stratospheric polar vortex is weakened, eastward winds progress down through the lower atmosphere (into the troposphere) where they then weaken the jet stream. This setup often result in easterly winds down near the surface, too, which, in turn, often results in dramatic reductions in temperature across the lower latitudes.

It should be noted, however, that the polar vortex is just one of many forcings capable of influencing our weather. Case in point: Despite the consistent zonal strength observed high above the North Pole this season, the U.S. has still suffered a number of record-breaking Arctic blasts. But it could stand that a confluence of forcings is needed in order for truly historic conditions to prevail. And with that in mind, let’s look again at that first SSW chart:


Note the red dotted line. This indicates last year’s zonal wind strength. Note the sharp weakening through January — it is this, after the standard 2-or-so weeks lag, and in combination with other forcings, that resulted in America suffering its coldest month of February since the 1980s. It led to the Big Freeze in Texas, during which 5 million homes lost power and 702 people died of the cold, some in their beds while they slept, including children.


The impact of this week’s weakening of the zonal winds high above the North Pole (10hPa) is something a wait and see — America, Europe and North Asia don’t yet know their fate. Saying that though, a few recent GFS runs are picking up on signals of a ‘Arctic outbreak’ developing around mid-March, but they are simply too far out to be reliable:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) for March 13 [tropicaltidbits.com].


Earth’s climate system is unimaginably complex and wildly unpredictable. For climate scientists to claim they can predict the temperature 50 to 100 years from now is preposterous. To say they know what the sea level will be, or how far glaciers will have retreated is equally absurd. Yet the masses are too consumed with mindless daily tasks to notice; too preoccupied with the ups and downs of the day’s spoon-fed news narrative to see past the lies; too busy simply surviving school runs and rat racing (and the pointless pursuit of a phony career) to have the time to stop and think; and they are too hooked on Instagram dopamine hits to find the willpower to strive for anything more…


Christchurch Suffers Chilly Lows And Record-Wet February

Christchurch just suffered its wettest February since records began in 1944. The city’s total rain this month stands at 148mm (5.8 inches), putting it ahead of the previous record, 1945’s 144.3mm (5.7 inches).

Monday was also bitterly cold — with a reading of 2.6C it was nearly five times lower the monthly minimum average, plus it was also the city’s fifth-coldest February morning on record, according to MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris.


Another influx of cool air is expected later this week, and additional rain is on the cards Tuesday and Wednesday, too.

More than three times the average rainfall fell in first half of this month in Christchurch, and is is the case in Australia to the west, dire predictions of never-ending drought and wildfires are being upended by record volumes of precipitation.

Activist scientists, such as Tim Flannery, predicted that cities such as Brisbane and Sydney were likely to run out of water very quickly because of man-made global warming. In 2007, Flannery said, “So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…”


More on Australia:


Midwest and Northeast’s Winter To Extend Into March

As the first day of meteorological spring nears, Americans from the Great Lakes to the New England coast are bracing for another dose of anomalously wintry conditions.

“A parade of clippers is forecast to sweep across the northern tier of the U.S. early week, each time producing a quick burst of snow along the storm track,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz.

The Northeast copped some snow on Sunday, but the first clipper of the week pushes into Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Monday into Monday night. This same system is expected to traverse across the Northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night, too.

As the snow treks across the northern tier of the country, a general coating of 3 inches of is expected.

Two subsequent clippers are then expected to dump snow from North Dakota and Minnesota into the interior Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday and Wednesday into Thursday, each time bringing some quick-hitting flurries for a few hours.

As each clipper departs, freezing temperatures will be left behind.

Much of the Upper Midwest has spent the final week of February in a deep freeze. High temperatures were below zero in Grand Forks, N.D., while Minneapolis was in the teens for most of the week — hundred upon hundreds of low temperature records have tumbled across North America over the past 7 days (including in Canada):


Elsewhere

The first sb -60C of the year has been registered in Antarctica.

On Feb 26, the Japanese Base of Dome Fuji logged a low of to -60.6C (-77.1F) — this is “a quite remarkable value for February,” writes @extremetemps on Twitter, but one that falls short of the Continental record of -65.5C, which is held by Vostok.

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The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.

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15 Thoughts to “Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Underway; Christchurch Suffers Chilly Lows And Record-Wet Feb; + Midwest and Northeast’s Winter To Extend Into March”

  1. Petrichor

    The Groundhog [Puxatawny Phil} was RIGHT !

    1. Wizard

      Comically, but YES!

  2. Lestonio

    Thank you for your Australia data & history.
    Ozzie media is too gutless to even comment on truth.

    1. Linda Mel Sewell

      read Inigo Jones on fb

  3. Bwana Neusi

    Meanwhile in Western Australia the media are hyperventilating about the fact that this is the hottest February on record with many 40ºC + for the month.
    No explanation offered as to the effect of the La Nina – only “Global Warming”

    1. Ice Age Eugenics and Biodigital-convergence Now.Info

      Extreme cold events stand in stark contrast to the theories of climate alarmists – Brrr! It’s Getting Colder Cold By Jack Dini -February 21, 2022
      https://canadafreepress.com/article/brrr-its-getting-colder-cold

  4. William Best

    Looking at the Antarctic Sea Ice area and extent graph/charts it appears that as of Feb 23, the ice is about 0.6 x 10(-6) or 600.000 sq. km less than the mean. Can anyone give any kind of explanation for such a deviation from the mean? Also, the reverse seems to be happening in the northern hemisphere. The total snow mass appears to be almost 2 standard deviations above the mean. Is there any public discussion about these anomalies?
    Curious in Vancouver. Billy Best

    1. esme

      lasīju par pazemes vulkāniem zem Grenlandes un Antarktīdas, tie kausējot ledu no zemes apakšas, un ledāju kušanai nav nekāda sakara ar sasilšanu

      1. William Best

        I recognize vulkaniem (vocano,vulcanism), and Grelandes, and Antarktidas but desperately need a translation if anyone can help here please do. Thanx, Billy Best

  5. Tony Wright

    Thanks for your valuable contributions to climate!

  6. CWNS News Benders Media Plandemic Party's Over, more News Benders in the Sched

    The health/life insurance company tidal wave is breaking.

    Well, of course it is. Who did you think was going to be left holding the bag for all the unreported injuries and deaths stemming from the COVID vaccines?

    These life insurance companies employ actuaries, and these smart guys predict the number of claims they’re going to pay out…and THAT’S how they decide what the policy holders must pay…in order for the companies to maintain their profits…

    Except, the actuaries had no idea what was going to happen.

    They didn’t realize how many injury/death claims were going to be filed, once the COVID killshots were unleashed on the world.

    But NOW THEY KNOW.

    Former NY Times reporter, Alex Berenson: “Welt, a major German newspaper, just ran an interview with Andreas Schofbeck, a board member for a Bavarian insurer called BKK Provita.”

    “By itself, BKK Provita has 120,000 members. But it is a much larger consortium of so-called BKK insurers that are affiliated with German companies and collectively have 10.9 million members.”

    “Here’s how Schofbeck described the [injury] claims in the BKK [company] database, according to one of the reporters who interviewed him:…‘a violent warning signal’.”

    Schofbeck is reacting, with great alarm, to all the vaccine injury claims that have been filed—looking at data from 10.9 MILLION policy holders.

    In other words, it’s OVERWHELMING.

    Another Humpty Dumpty just fell off the wall and broke into pieces.

    Obviously, health/life insurance companies around the world are looking at similar horrific numbers.

    What are these companies going to do? Just sit there and suck up their huge losses?

    No. For starters, they’re going to blame the vaccine manufacturers. That’s already quite interesting, even if news outlets aren’t reporting it. Because, as Edward Dowd, former portfolio manager for BlackRock, has been saying, WALL STREET will take notice.

    430 to 144. Can you guess what those numbers represent? The all-time high peak of the Moderna share price, and the most recent closing price, as of this writing.

    BANG.

    61 to 46. The first number is the high, over the past year, for the Pfizer share price, and the second number is the most recent close, as of this writing.

    These insurance-vaccine company developments were also inevitable, from the beginning of the fake pandemic.

    Anyone who knows the real history of vaccines would have seen it in a second.

    You rapidly shoot up the whole world with a new vaccine, and the injury-death numbers are going to go through the roof.

    Insurance companies don’t like to be left holding the bag and absorbing the consequences of both the jab and the lies the vaccine front men have been telling.

    Insurance companies are wired up to, heavily influence, and control all sorts of politicians and bureaucrats and public health officials. You can bet your bottom dollar these companies have been reading the riot act to their government puppets.

    “You [FDA] morons…you’re supposed to be protecting the public from dangerous drugs and vaccines. And now people all over the world are dropping like flies from the COVID shot, and those people are our POLICY HOLDERS.”

    “What did you want us to do? For chrissakes, we work for the pharmaceutical companies.”

    “We’re not interested in excuses. We want money. Lots of it, to make up for our losses.”

    “Don’t look at us. We don’t do bailouts. Go to Treasury, or the President.”

    “The President can’t even find his way from the shower to the bedroom in the White House residence.”

    “Talk to nurse Jill or Susan Rice…”

    And word of these conversations leaks out to Wall Street.

    Look for new bailouts, and a plethora of cover stories to explain why insurance companies are suddenly inhaling hundreds of billions of government dollars (or more.)

    Cover stories only the most naïve fools will believe.

    Serial liar Tony Fauci may be able to tap dance with his media partners every Sunday morning on the news talk shows; but when giant insurance companies want him to pay for his sins, that’s a whole different story.

    Tony could become yet another Humpty Dumpty…

    All we need now—among all the insurance companies in the world—are five or six OUTRAGED big-time insurance execs to step out of the shadows with their hair on fire, completely fed up with the grand cover-up of vaccine injuries, and talking their heads off.

    Not whistleblowers. Siren sounders.
    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2022/02/24/shocker-pandemic-end-game-humpty-dumpty-falls-off-the-wall-cover-is-blown/

    The News-Benders (1968) Thirty Minute Theatre (Subtitled) – YouTube Classified World news Service CWNS
    https://youtu.be/KOu_vlH3THM

  7. Deb

    Thanks for explaining why we have had such a mild winter in mid Missouri.

    Is there a war or no war or fake war or what?

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/dZXI0UrruDYB/

    1. Matt Dalby

      Selective use of information. During any war there will always be some places in the war zone that are quiet at certain times.
      There is definitely an invasion taking place, although as ever exactly what is happening is hard to figure out. I think that what Russia has done is indefensible, but at the same time can see that politicians and the MSM, especially in Europe, are incredibly anti Russian so we don’t get the whole story.
      It’s important to realise that eco nutters (from Biden down) who oppose any new oil and gas drilling or pipelines have pushed up the price and made the West partly dependent on Russian supplies thereby helping Putin to fund his war. Those few people with their heads still screwed on have been warning for years that it’s crazy to rely on nasty regimes for something as essential as energy, but the right on majority ignored them and now it’s a case of we told you so.

  8. Deb

    Too bad the people with common sense who just want to be left alone can’t get together and start a country of our own.

    But THEY would never leave us alone.

    1. Deb

      Oh, that’s right. Already been done. It’s called Ireland, lol.

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