Extreme Weather 

A. K. Singh and A. Bhargawa: “Solar Cycles 25 and 26 [will be] very similar to the Dalton Minimum”

Professors A. K. Singh and A. Bhargawa work on Atmospheric and Space Physics, Solar activity, and Climate at the University of Lucknow, India. The pair have a number of interesting papers on the role solar activity plays on Earth’s climate–including TSI and its impact on terrestrial temperatures, cosmic rays, and cloud cover.

Of their many published papers, 2019’s “Prediction of declining solar activity trends during solar cycles 25 and 26 and indication of other solar minimum” stands out, which elaborates on 2017’s An early prediction of 25th solar cycle using Hurst exponent.

Singh and Bhargawa write: “The understanding of solar activity and solar related events is important for scientific, social, and economic reasons, and plays a pivotal role in global climate studies.”

In their 2019 paper “Prediction of declining solar activity trends during solar cycles 25 and 26 and indication of other solar minimum“, the pair adopt a sequential application of three major statistical methods on time series in order to forecast the next two solar cycles (25 and 26): the Hodrick Prescott filter (1980), the Hurst exponent (Hurst 1951) and the simplex projection method (Sugihara and May 1990).

Their Conclusions

Singh’s and Bhargawa’s results reveal a sharp declining trend in solar activity which they say is “very much comparable” to the various predictions from other workers in the field, such as Schatten and Tobiska (2003)–who predict a return to Maunder Minimum conditions, Hathaway and Wilson (2004), Du and Du (2006), Clilverd et al. (2006), Quassim et al. (2007), Abdusamatov (2007), Hady (2013), Shepherd et al. (2014).

“Most of the workers have made their predictions based on sunspot numbers and our results were very much comparable to them,” writes Singh and Bhargawa. And “apart from sunspot numbers, we have also considered F10.7 cm index and Lyman alpha index for the predictions of solar cycles 25 and 26.”

The sunspot number, the F10.7 cm index and the Lyman alpha index during solar cycles 21 to 24 have provided Singh and Bhargawa with the data to forecast cycles 25 and 26. The Hodrick Prescott filter was used to obtain the detrended (periodic) and trend pattern for each time series. The cyclic component was used to check the level of persistence of the time series of these parameters and the data was subjected to rescaled range analysis to obtain Hurst exponent. And the simplex projection method was applied on the trend component of each time series to obtain data points for future solar cycles.

Using these data points, Singh and Bhargawa predict that solar cycle 25 will be lower in comparison to solar cycle 24 –which was already the lowest for 100+ years– while activity during cycle 26 will be lesser in comparison to cycle 25.

Furthermore, and after looking at the solar activity pattern during the study, it is also concluded that the minimum will ‘bottom-out’ around the year 2043.

Fig. 5
Monthly variations of the observed and predicted (dotted) values of the sunspot numbers, F10.7 cm index and Lyman alpha index.

The researchers go on to compare their forecast to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) –which also tracks with NASA’s prediction– calling it “very similar” in nature but with a few key differences: “our predicted minimum may be different than the Dalton minima because the Dalton minima happened in between high solar active cycles while cycles 25 and 26 have showed a continuous trend of decreasing solar activity since the last four solar cycles”:

Fig. 6
Yearly average numbers of sunspots (SSN) from the year 1700 to the present and the predicted values.

Detailed historical documentation exists from the Dalton Minimum and we find, as with the deeper Maunder and Spörer Minimums preceding it, that the Dalton coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures, long winters, short summers, crop loss, famine, war, and powerful volcanic eruptions (Mount Tambora erupted during the Dalton Minimum which resulted in The Year Without a Summer in 1816).

Bread Riots at the House of Commons, UK — 1815.

Also during the DM, the Oberlach Station in Germany experienced a 2C decline over 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production. The potato crop in Ireland rotted in the ground resulting in widespread starvation. Across Europe, the wheat crops failed leading to bread shortages and food riots and looting. Northern China was also hard hit with thousands of people starving to death. While in southern Asia, torrential rains triggered a cholera epidemic that killed many more.

Singh and Bhargawa add that solar cycles 25 and 26 could in fact be weaker than the Dalton Minimum given “a continuous trend of decreasing solar activity since last four solar cycles”, and the implications for our climate could be extreme: rapidly declining global temperatures will prove disastrous to our modern monocropping ways, as they have done for human food production for time immemorial. Today, our view of the world has been utterly corrupted, and to fear warmth is a completely illogical stance: “Plants and animals thrive in warm climates,” writes Dr Jay Lehr; “Warming is good for life. It is cooling that should concern us. Tropical forests cover less than 12 percent of all land, yet they contain a majority of plant and animal species on earth. The Arctic covers 10 percent of the planet’s land area, but contains only 600 plant species and only 100 species of birds, no reptiles or amphibians, and only 20 mammals.”

We should embrace every bit of warmth we get.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, all in line with with historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow; and both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA admitting we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Prepare for the COLD— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

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