Although slightly outperforming SC24, Solar Cycle 25 is currently progressing as expected: the cycle is on course to be another historically weak one, markedly lower than SC21, SC22 and SC23 — this means a persisting migraine for the AGW Party as global temperatures are only set to continue their well-established correlation with solar activity.
Below is a chart comparing Solar Cycle 25 to the very weak cycles from the turn of the 1900s (the Centennial Minimum):
Clear to see is just how lackluster these past two cycles are proving to be — they are the weakest in more than two centuries:
The official forecast by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel (made in 2019, and visualized by the red line above) called for a weak cycle 25, peaking in July 2025. And while things are currently tracking slightly ahead of schedule, NOAA don’t believe that the cycle will peak any higher than SC24. Instead, they simply see the peak arriving earlier, in late-2024 (rather than mid-2025). If this plays out it would of course mean an earlier start to Solar Cycle 26, too–a cycle, according to many predictions, that may struggle to produce many sunspots at all — an eventually that could usher in the next Grand Solar Minimum proper.
As always, time will tell.
Fairbanks sees Record-Breaking Snowfall
Winter is off to a strong start in Fairbanks, after a snow event that began Friday and lasted through Sunday caused an unusually large amount of snow for this time of the year.
Fairbanks set a pair of daily snowfall records and, even more impressive, the two-day and three day snow accumulations were among the highest on record for this early in the season.
Friday and Saturday were both record setting days for Fairbanks, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
Fairbanks received 3 inches of snow on Friday, busting the previous record of 2.4 inches set way back in 1916 (the Centennial Minimum). While the 2.8 inches recorded on Saturday broke the record of 2.1 inches from 1944 (solar minimum of cycle 17).
In more than a century of book-keeping, this combined total of 5.8 inches is the sixth greatest two-day accumulation on record for this early in the season.
Additionally, the three-day total for Friday through Sunday closed at 6.7 inches — the fifth highest for the early season.
For reference, the NWS defines Sept 1 to Oct 5 as ‘the early season’.
In terms of total snow accumulation, the weekend event was “very significant,” said climatologist Rick Thoman. According to Thoman, the two and three day accumulations are more notable than the daily records — there are more multiple day stretches of snow, he explained, and so these records are much harder to break.
The early blast of winter wasn’t just confined to Fairbanks, either — vast swathes of Interior Alaska copped inches and inches of global warming goodness:
It’s also beginning to look a lot like winter on Mount Washington, reports comoxvalleyrecord.com.
Around 1.6 inches of snow had accumulated Tuesday morning, Oct 5.
And looking ahead, The Weather Network expects further light dustings on the mountain as the week progresses, with another round of potentially heavier snow rolling through on Sunday as overnight lows sink to 24.8F (-4C).
A potent Pacific system is pushing on the B.C. coast, continues the comoxvalleyrecord.com article, and higher elevations are forecast as much as 8 inches (20 cm) of snow — a snowfall warning is in effect for the Peace River region, but with a northwest flow, freezing levels have dropped significantly: the average south coast peaks freezing level for October is just under 9,800 ft (3,000 m); but this coming Sunday and Monday, levels are expected drop to around 3,900 ft (1,200 m).
The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).
Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.
Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.
Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift