Recent GFS runs show snow falling across the majority of Europe between Weds Oct 24 and Sun Oct 31 — from the Northern reaches of Scandinavia to the far south of Spain.
UK snowfall looks set to start Fri Oct 26, beginning in northern Scotland but from Sat Oct 27 through Weds Oct 31 large southern areas are forecast to be affected too.
October snow in England is really quite rare, incredibly rare in the South.
In 2008 (solar minimum of cycle 23), London had its first October snow since 1934.
And the last time Surrey had lying October snow was in 1887.
Both London and Surrey are forecast to get an inch or so Saturday night.
GFS Total Snowfall (Oct 23 – Oct 31)
Heavy October snow is also forecast for all of Scandinavia, two-thirds of France and Germany, a third of Spain, most of Austria, Italy — in fact, the majority of European countries can expect snow this coming seven days, with the Alps set to receive monster totals.
Temperature departures are almost as shocking as the snow totals.
The deep arctic trough will bring the mercury tumbling between 10C to 20C below average for vast swathes of the continent:
OCT. 29 GFS TEMP ANOMALY (1981-2010)
Although these are medium-range forecasts, and so subject to change, the data has supported an early and brutal start to the European winter for months now, and the models are only growing in confidence.
History is repeating.
Grand Solar Minimum
Read a a little on the mechanics of why this is happening below: