MSc ‘cum laude’ Hajo Smit (meteorology and climate science): “There is clear cut solar-climate coupling and a very strong natural variability of climate on all historical time scales. Currently I hardly believe anymore that there is any relevant relationship between human CO2 emissions and climate change.”
Record Lows Grip Europe
Sweden Registers -37.4C (-35.3F)
Brutally cold Arctic air has been spilling into Scandinavia –and beyond– over the past week+.
As a result, low temperature records are being broken across mainland Europe.
Kevo, in Finland, observed a low of -32.2C (-26F) over the weekend.
Buresjön, Sweden, fell to -34.7C (-30.5F) — the town’s lowest November temperature since 2010.
But it was Nattavaara, located in Lapland, Sweden, that achieved the most impressive feat. The small tourist town, located 327m (1,073ft) above sea level, logged a bone-chilling -37.4C (-35.3F) on Monday, November 29 — this was not only a record for the station, or for Sweden, but it was Scandinavia’s coldest November temperature since 1980.
Other notable Lapland lows include the -36C (-32.8F) in Arrenjarka, and the -35C (-31F) in Karesuando.
Snow is accompanying the record cold, and is causing disruptions across not only Scandinavia but also central-north Europe, including the nations of Poland and Germany:
The forecast looks grim, too.
Lows of -40C (-40F) are set to sweep Scandinavia by early December, which, according to mkweather.com, would be “one of the earliest -40C and lower temperatures in all-time history!”
UK Schools Forced To Shut
Many schools across the UK have been forced to close Monday and Tuesday after an early taste of winter —storm Arwen— left parts of the home nations with mountainous snow drifts and icy roads.
Schools in Derbyshire, Lancashire, the Midlands have been worst hit after dangerous and icy conditions lingered into the new week: On Monday, the UK suffered it’s lowest readings of the season so far, with lows nearing -10C (14F) in Cumbria.
Over the weekend, storm Arwen delivered sustained winds of 100mph, causing transport disruptions, power cuts and damage to buildings. Heavy snow led to lorries getting stuck and plows being used in a number of areas.
Weather warnings for ice remain in force around the country, with drivers urged to take extra care when heading out.
Also, some 66,000 homes are still without power.
Looking ahead, and as hinted at above, Europe’s early-season freeze shows no signs abating–quite the opposite, in fact.
According to the latest GFS run (shown below), additional Arctic cold, more widespread this time, is about to sweep the continent into early December.
Temperature departures of between -6 to -18C below the norm are on course to batter the majority of European nations, from the UK to the Ukraine, from Sweden to Spain–with the most notable lows set to impact Scandinavia and W Russia:
Looking further east, and again as per the latest GFS run, temperature departures of as much as -20C below average are on course to sweep vast swathes of northern Russia this week–including Siberia.
And by mid-December –so admittedly well into the unreliable time-frame– the GFS is picking up on something truly exceptional. A brutal Arctic air mass is set to drop south on December 14, one so cold that it’s driving temperature departures off the charts.
Taking the below forecast as read –but with a pinch of salt in hand– northern/central Russia is on course to suffer temperature departures some -30C below the winter average:
Note: In this part of the world, and at this time of year, anomalies such as these will see temperatures rivaling the coldest ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere of below -60C/-76F). And for those thinking such a feat is impossible, well, a similar setup actually occurred last winter when this same region endured its “longest and harshest cold spell on record”:
Europe’s and Asia’s incoming freezes don’t bode well for the intensifying global energy crisis.
As reported by oilprice.com, Europe is bracing for a colder-than-usual winter this year, and some energy analysts foresee gas inventories falling to zero, meaning rolling blackouts.
“If the weather gets cold in Europe there’s not going to be an easy supply solution, it’s going to need a demand solution,” Adam Lewis, a partner at trading house Hartree Partners, told Bloomberg.
Some energy-intensive industries using a lot of natural gas –including ammonia, fertilizer, and steelworks– have already curtailed operations in Europe in recent months as record natural gas prices made their production unprofitable, but further shutdowns will likely be required to avert widespread outages.
Jeremy Weir, CEO at one of the largest commodity traders, recently issued a warning to consumers: Apart from soaring gas and electricity prices, the natural gas crunch could mean rolling power outages if the winter is really cold: “We haven’t got enough gas at the moment, quite frankly,” Weir said at the recent FT Commodities Asia Summit. “We’re not storing for the winter period … So hence there is a real concern that if we have a cold winter that we could have rolling blackouts in Europe.”
A Word on the U.S.
The exceptional chill in Europe and Asia is currently resulting in anomalous warmth over North America as the continent finds itself on the ‘other side’ of a violently buckling jet stream.
Enjoy the mild conditions while you can though, is my advice — the situation looks set to shift, at least for central/western regions, into the second week of December:
Heavy snow is also on the cards…
…snow that will add to the Northern Hemisphere’s already impressive start to the 2021-2022 season, which is standing at approx. 250 Gigatons above the 1982-2012 average:
The Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma is now suffering its longest eruption in 300+ years, since the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715):
The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).
Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.
Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.
Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift