Extreme Weather 

“Once in a century Flood” devastating Central Europe, the fifth such event since 1997

Weeks of torrential rains are already bringing extreme flooding to parts of Poland, Germany and the Czech Rep., devastating local communities. With no let-up in the forecast, this event has the potential to be Central Europe’s fifth “Once in a Century Flood” in just over two decades.

The Polish Institute of Meteorology has issued the highest level warning for the South of the country.

Strong winds have damaged 32 buildings and knocked down hundreds of trees, blocking roads.

According to RMF.FM, five scout camps in the Malopolska, Swietokrzyskie and in Pomerania had to be evacuated, and a total of 530 people from the camp in Krostenko, due to the flooding.

While 200 people were evacuated from Małopolskie Voivodeship, where homes and roads were flooded out as rivers burst their banks.

This weeks disaster looks set to be the fifth so-called “100 year flooding event” to strike Central Europe in the last 21 years — joining the 1997 floods that killed 115, along with the 2002, 2005, 2010 and 2013 floods.

 

Climatological Context

 

Scientist believe the dramatic increase in the intensity of low-pressure systems over the last two decades is due to a disturbance in the jet stream.

As we progress deeper into the Grand Solar Minimum, the jet stream will take on more of a meridional flow replacing the standard zonal. Where a zonal setup moves air west to east, a meridional flow transports cold air south and warm air north, this flow can effectively lock weather systems in place. This explains why some parts of the world become unseasonably hot or cold and others unusually dry or rainy.

Add to this the increased absorbtion of galactic cosmic rays and their effect on cloud nucleation, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Climate scientists have estimated that the flooding regimes, which have prior inflicted severe flooding once every 100 years, will become far more frequent.

The cost of flooding in the European continent, which currently causes an estimated 4.9 billion Euros of damage per year, is expected to increase to 23.5 billion Euros per year.

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