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NOAA declares “La Niña” watch for the Fall: the Global Cooling Accelerator

The La Niña climate pattern is forecast to make a return this fall and last through the winter of 2021-22, according to an official “alert” issued Thursday, July 8 by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which suggests further global cooling as we enter the new year.

La Niña –-a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific Ocean-– is one of the main drivers of global weather — it is usually associated with colder global temperatures, droughts in the southern U.S., and increased precipitation in Australia.

The CPC, part of our data-tampering friends over at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its forecast Thursday in which it officially declared an “ENSO alert” with a strong-potential for La Niña conditions emerging between September-November this year.

The below chart shows SSTs for region 3.4 of the equatorial Pacific.

Note that the majority of the models are running deep into La Niña territory, with these conditions expected to persist throughout the remainder of 2021, and into 2022:

What’s also noteworthy is that CSFv2 (orange line above) usually tends to favor warmer events, so it’s worth paying extra-attention when this particular model forecasts anything cold.

CFSv2 SST forecast anomalies with 1982-2010 climatology

La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is the opposite pattern of El Niño (“little boy”), which features warmer-than-average seawater in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Note: ‘super’ El Niños led to the UAH warming spikes of 1998, 2016, and early 2020 –visualized below– not anthropogenic global warming:

This natural climate cycle is officially known as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short.

ENSO-neutral conditions, sometimes referred to as “La Nada,” which occur when seawater temperatures are about average, are forecast to persist throughout the summer of 2021, until La Niña takes over later this year.

We just went through a La Niña last winter.

It, along with the historically low solar activity we’ve been experiencing, resulted in a sharp global cooldown.

And although conditions have returned to ENSO-neutral, or La Nada, in recent months, Earth’s terrestrial temperatures have continued to cool — in June, 2021 (the most recent data-point) global average temperatures fell back below the 30-year average:

Entering a La Niña event when global temperatures are already around baseline is significant.

If the climate pattern has the expected affect then we should brace for global temps to continue their overall downward trend –which began in 2016 (see link below)– to levels well below the norm.

We could conceivably be looking at UAH readings some 0.4C below the 30-year average by the spring of 2022.

AGW proponents will have a hard time explaining their way out of that one.

According to the prediction center, a typical La Niña winter in the United States brings intense cold and snow to the northwest, and unusually dry and chilly conditions to the majority of the southern tier.

Australia gets cooler and wetter, overall.

While Europe usually sees colder winters, and extreme snowfall events.

Stay tuned for updates.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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6 Thoughts to “NOAA declares “La Niña” watch for the Fall: the Global Cooling Accelerator”

  1. Jimmy "the Broom"

    Will California get rain or not?

    1. Anonymous

      I suppose not.

    2. Petrichor

      If the South is due for drouth, then the West will be too.

  2. Deb

    We had 2 1/2 solid weeks of well below freezing temps in Feb this year in Missouri. We rarely have more than one week of any type of weather before it changes and gives us at least a short break. We had 2 1/2 weeks of ice on the ground and gravel roads this winter. How bad will it be next winter? Time to stock up a little better.

  3. Welcome to the 440 year Grand Solar Minimum. We are looking at another Maunder Minimum situation. Study it closely, and you will have a pretty good idea as to what we can expect, as we approach the next Interglacial Period.

  4. Mark Johnson

    Thanks. I am open to all inputs as long as they are supported by data.

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