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New Study: Severe Droughts Not Due To Climate Change

Severe droughts in many parts of the world are not due to climate change, according to the review by scientists from University of Oxford, Imperial College London and the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.

In a somewhat refreshing take, study co-author Friederike Otto, of Imperial College London, said the impact of global warming on extreme weather events was often “overestimated”.

“I think on the one hand we overestimate climate change because it’s now quite common that every time an extreme event happens, there is a big assumption that climate change is playing a big role, which is not always the case,” she said.

Dr Otto pointed to East Africa, which has a naturally highly variable climate that contributes to drought, and warned that disaster there was linked to poverty and lack of health care systems and infrastructure, not the West’s increasing CO2 emissions.

But let’s not get too hopeful now, the study did obtain mainstream funding after all — and although the researchers didn’t find the ‘fingerprint of climate change’ on droughts, they most certainly did within heatwaves.

Dr Otto said climate change was “absolutely” making heatwaves more likely and intense.

“We can very confidently say that every heatwave that is occurring today is made more intense and more likely because of climate change. There are local factors like land use changes that might change how much more likely, but there’s no doubt climate change is really an absolute gamechanger when it comes to heatwaves around the world,” she said. 

Lead author Ben Clarke, of the University of Oxford, added: “The rise of more extreme and intense weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall have dramatically increased in recent years, affecting people all over the globe. Understanding the role that climate change plays in these events can help us better prepare for them. It also allows us to determine the real cost that carbon emissions have in our lives.”

Jarring with the researchers’ findings, however, is the annual heatwave index for the United States (shown below).

Clear for everyone to see –even for IPCC lapdogs like Clarke– is that the frequency of heatwaves as well as how widespread they are have decreased over time and currently reside at the lower-end of the scale.

Today’s heatwaves appear in line with those at the start of the 1900s (the Centennial Minimum).


Referring to the ‘Centennial Minimum’ is pertinent, because it is the Sun, not CO2, that is at the heart of all major climatic events on Earth — a reality the IPCC refuse to acknowledge.

Also swept under the rug is the fact that our star is experiencing a spell of historically-weak output. This is significant and is likely the cause of the majority of the detected weather anomalies besieging parts of our planet in recent years (both hot and cold).

When solar activity is HIGH, the jet stream is tight and stable and follows somewhat of a straight path. When solar activity is LOW, that meandering band of air flowing 6 miles above our heads becomes weak and wavy, it effectively buckles which diverts frigid Polar air to atypically low latitudes and replaces it with warmer tropical air.

The jet stream reverts from a Zonal Flow to a Meridional Flow and, depending on which side of the jet stream you’re on, you’re either in for a spell of unseasonably cold or hot weather and/or a period of unusually dry or wet conditions.

This forcing FULLY explains why some regions are impacted by bursts of anomalous heat while other locales, even those relatively nearby, are contending with blasts of record cold. The global warming hypothesis DOES NOT explain the increasing number of ‘polar outbreaks’ we’re witnessing, it only covers the heatwaves; whereas a waning Sun, and a corresponding weak and wavy jet stream flow, explain both.

Given our current understanding of the forcings, ‘the low solar activity theory’ absolutely nails it:


On the same hand, however, be very wary of those claiming to have a solid grip on the inner workings of Earth’s climate — everything is still up in the air, complex, and very little of the science is actually settled.

And for the same reasons, take ALL claims and extrapolated forecasts with a pinch of salt, such as this one made by climatologists at the World Weather Attribution: “heatwaves are made 30 times more likely by climate change”. This statement is far too specific to be taken seriously. There is no way researchers were able to accurately and honestly calculate this figure. Such a simplification feels political–which then begs the question, ‘what are we really dealing with here?’ — incompetence or fraud?

Again, heatwaves are NOT increasing across the United States–or is it that America is exempt from global warming?


Wildfires, another natural disaster key to the AGW Party’s narrative, are also DECREASING:


Note also that the Biden administration recently scrubbed all wildfire data prior to 1983 from the official record books.

This was done because fire burn acreage was found to be much higher between 1910-1960 than it is today and therefore disproved their AGW/wildfire correlation. The ACTUAL data destroys ‘the climate emergency’ narrative, and so the current administration unabashedly removed the records, citing the lackluster reasoning that “it wasn’t official”–linked here.

However, and after delving a little deeper, the real reason they deleted the pre-1983 data is likely because the year 1983 contains the lowest burn acreage in recorded history. Therefore, by starting in 1983 it appears that burn acreage has increased.

In reality though –where I’m keen to reside– there is ZERO correlation between rising CO2 and heatwaves/burn acreage. Burn acreage is actually down 90% since CO2 was at pre-industrial levels, but the administration recently deleted this document, too:


There is, however, a close correlation between heatwaves and wildfires –as visualized in the below chart which overlaps the official heatwave data (red line) with that of the burn acreage (blue and green lines)– but this fact does nothing to support the ‘climate crisis’ narrative and so goes completely unmentioned:

Correlation between heatwaves and wildfires [Tony Heller of realclimatescience.com].


Don’t fall for the agenda-driving drivel spouted by power-hungry politicians and cock-and-bull pop-scientists.

DYOR.

Always.

Believe what is logical, not what is merely popular.


BONUS: Australia

It’s been exceptionally cold in Southeast Australia this week.

So cold, in fact, that monthly low temperature records have been toppled.

Temperatures at the capital Canberra plunged to an anomalous -6C (21.2F) at its official weather station, located at the Airport.

While Hillston airport, with its reading of -4C (24.8F), just suffered its coldest June temperature on records, pipping the -3.9C (25F) set on June 18, 1958 (the reading was also only 0.6C from the locale’s all time low).

And looking ahead, something colder and much more widespread is on the cards as the calendar flips to July:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly (C) July 1 – July 4 [tropicaltidbits.com].


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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23 Thoughts to “New Study: Severe Droughts Not Due To Climate Change”

  1. What we really need is a Cold Wave index.

    1. Dallas Schneider

      We need that Cold Wave index NOW!

      1. Michael Peinsipp

        Seriously…we went from 94°F to 54°F in 1 DAY!!!
        South Central KY and we are a month LATE on certain crops having been planted…

        1. TheMronz

          Almost as extreme diurnal variation here in SW UK 87°F 17 June (MSM going ape about hottest June day ever which then didn’t materialise) 13°C 55°F max next day and been generally cool ever since.

        2. Dallas Schneider

          WoW! Very real to me as I spent a year in Albany!
          Absolutely Beautiful Country!
          DS

  2. Dallas Schneider

    Any idea what helped cause the 1930’s extreme heat?
    CO2 was certainly much much lower at that time.
    That also blows the climate emergency agenda.

    1. One part of the reason is the AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation). Just plot it against the US temperature record — the unaltered temperature record.

      1. Matt Dalby

        Also the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). IMO ocean cycles are the only thing that can explain the low heatwave index in the 1960’s and 1970’s, plus the sharp drop in global temperatures that use to be shown on data sets such as NASA Gisstemp before they were adjusted to try and make them fit the AGW narrative. Although there was one relatively weak solar cycle at the time IMO it isn’t sufficient to fully explain the unadjusted temperature record, only a combination of solar and ocean cycles can account for observed temperature changes over the last 100+ years.

    2. Michael Peinsipp

      Sol, the Sun, was having ‘hot flashes’ during that time. Kidding BUT the Sun’s output was MUCH greater than now.
      Add land that was stripped of vegetation and you get DUST STORMS.
      There are more reasons but ask Cap about that time…he knows WAAYYYY more than I will ever know OR ask Tony Heller ot realclimatescience.com.

      1. Dallas Schneider

        Thanks! DS

  3. Michael Peinsipp

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts
    Watch the LASCO C3 video and see a massive CME right at the end. If THAT hits Earth, enjoy living without …anything!
    Seriously watch the video…lower right quadrant…

    1. Linda

      What is the glitch in the video?

    2. Dirk Pitt

      Just a little snap crackle pop as Mercury goes by Venus:
      https://www.solarham.net/cmetracking.htm
      https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_c2.gif

      Second fastest solar wind speed in a one-year span:
      http://solen.info/solar/images/swind.png

      Electrons above threshold for the third day:
      https://dpa-images.s3.amazonaws.com/goes_electron.png
      http://www.solen.info/solar/images/electronfluence.png

      Electromagnetic field and Schumann Resonance being hit harder than ever recorded. Scroll back on that channel two years, there’s nothing even close to THIS:

  4. Ron Grabyan

    Great information on the Stable versus Wavy Jet Stream, especially the correlation of high sun activity to a stable Jet Stream and low sun activity to a wavy Jet Stream. To that point, and your insistence on DYOR, can you provide a few published scientific articles which demonstrate these correlations? I have looked, but perhaps, I am not using the exact proper terms in my searches on Google Scholar and the Internet.

  5. Dirk Pitt

    SWE WA ST USSA is 532% to 1874% of normal. The SW USSA is about to go bone dry and thirsty folks will be migrating here full force. I bought this house four years ago and it’s gone up in value 100% a year from 60k to 240k. Supply and demand. Guy across the street just sold his vacant lot for a buck fifty, had two cash buyers before 9AM first day, cash in hand !!! Pristine river flowing out of Olympic National Park is half a mile N flowing out to 80ac of tidelands, salmon return end of Summer, crabbing starts Friday 🙂
    https://komonews.com/news/local/washington-drought-and-the-results-from-springtime

  6. Ross McLeod

    “There is, however, a close correlation between heatwaves and wildfires”

    I’m not sure I totally agree with this statement because “gullibles” will simply believe heatwaves of 45+°C cause fires which everyone with half a brain should know such temperatures are not even close to combustion temperatures of forest materials which are typically in excess of ~270°C !

    Of course a heatwave accompanied by lack of rain makes the forest susceptible to wildfire but there are significantly more episodes of potential forest fire where nothing actually occurred than when an event occurred.

    Gullibles do not possess the ability to actually reason !

    1. anon

      A very high majority of wildfires (possibly 90%??) are caused by humans or human equipment/powerlines etc. However more people go camping in warm dry weather so..Its complicated.

  7. Frame Game Propaganda

    “Note also that the Biden administration recently scrubbed all wildfire data prior to 1983 from the official record books.” [Propaganda, it’s all about “framing and lying with statistics” especially when it’s done well… or what I prefer to call a drive to “save the frame” of an argument that is quickly taking on water.” Eugenics works…. especially on the undiscerning intentionally oblivious masses.]

    The Globalist’s Frame Game
    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/06/29/bill-gates-and-the-frame-game/#more-271917

    ‘How To Lie With Statistics’ gets Bill Gates’ thumbs up
    https://www.thegardenisland.com/2020/08/21/hawaii-news/how-to-lie-with-statistics-gets-bill-gates-thumbs-up/

  8. Grim Reaper

    FDA Advisors Unanimously Endorse Pfizer, Moderna COVID Shots for Infants and Young Kids, Ignore Pleas to ‘First Do No Murder to Little Children’
    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/06/29/fda-advisors-unanimously-endorse-pfizer-moderna-covid-shots-for-infants-and-young-kids-ignore-pleas-to-first-do-no-harm/

    Smiley-Faced, CDC Boss, Walensky, Jew From Hell Raves
    About Bioweapon Injections Now Being Available For 6 Month Old Infants To
    5 Year Old Toddlers – The Horrors Of Child Sacrifice Are Now Being Rolled Out
    In Full View In This ‘First World’ Country For 20 Million Babies And Toddlers
    https://rense.com/general96/WALENSKY.mp4
    https://rense.com/

    1. anon

      A wave of people heavily sick at home now, during summer, with colds viruses. This was predicted by the few honest doctors a year ago: that those who took the RNA shots would have weakened immune systems after a few weeks of taking the RNA experimental shots. The evidence proves this, they require monthly boosters to hide their damaged immune systems. And so it has come to pass, everyone injected is now being seriously affected by any mild summer colds. Their immune system is wrecked.

      1. Archivarius

        You’re Not Going To Like This – Russell Brand nails it, vaxxed Elmo and his puppet dad psyop propaganda reaching new lows.
        Published July 1, 2022
        https://rumble.com/v1aq99d-youre-not-going-to-like-this.html

  9. Anonymous

    Where is your post

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