NASA Predicts Next Solar Cycle will be Lowest in 200 Years (Dalton Minimum Levels) + the Implications
An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining evermore support. Even NASA appears to be on-board, with their recent SC25 prediction — though, predictably, they stay clear of the implications.
NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.
The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.
The agency’s results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025:
The below is lifted from NASA’s official website (www.nasa.gov):
The new research was led by Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center, in California’s Silicon Valley. It combined observations from two NASA space missions – the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory – with data collected since 1976 from the ground-based National Solar Observatory.
One challenge for researchers working to predict the Sun’s activities is that scientists don’t yet completely understand the inner workings of our star. Plus, some factors that play out deep inside the Sun cannot be measured directly. They have to be estimated from measurements of related phenomena on the solar surface, like sunspots.
Kitiashvili’s method differs from other prediction tools in terms of the raw material for its forecast. Previously, researchers used the number of sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field. The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields emerging on the surface of the Sun – data which has only existed for the last four solar cycles.
Mathematically combining the data from the three sources of Sun observations with the estimates of its interior activity generated a forecast designed to be more reliable than using any of those sources alone.
In 2008 the researchers used this method to make their prediction, which was then put to the test as the current solar cycle unfolded over the last decade. It has performed well, with the forecast strength and timing of the solar maximum aligning closely with reality.
Implications
NASA attempts to paint the upcoming solar shutdown as a window of opportunity for space missions, “the improving ability to make such predictions about space weather are good news for mission planners who can schedule human exploration missions during periods of lower radiation.”
This is absurd, and serves as yet another example of government agency obfuscation and half-truths.
NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it:
- Like the deeper Maunder and Spörer Minimums preceding it, the Dalton brought on a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2C decline over 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production.
- The Year Without a Summer also occurred during the Dalton Minimum, in 1816. It was caused by a combination of already low temperatures plus the aftereffects of the second largest volcanic eruption in 2000 years: Mount Tambora’s VEI 7 on April 10, 1815.
(For more on the link between reduced Solar Output and a Volcanic + Seismic uptick, click here).
The earthquakes and tsunamis that followed killed tens of thousands of people living on the surrounding Indonesian islands. But Tambora’s eruption wasn’t of much interest to Europe and the U.S., not initially at least — the news was focused on the Napoleonic Wars and the Battle of Waterloo on Sunday, June 18, 1815, in which the Duke of Wellington defeated Napoleon Bonaparte at the expense of 65,000 men.
The newspapers were preoccupied with the battle right up until the start of winter in 1815, when the weather turned decidedly whacky. And by 1816, the climate was dominating headline news as both Spring and then Summer failed to arrive.
One Virginia resident recalled, “In June another snowfall came and folks went sleighing. On July 4, water froze in cisterns and snow fell again, with Independence Day celebrants moving inside churches where hearth fires warmed things a mite.”
Clothes froze on the line in New England, ice on ponds and lakes was reported in northwestern Pennsylvania in both July and August, and Virginia had frosts in August. The temperature occasionally got into the 90s, but then would drop to nearly freezing in just a few hours.
Crops that had managed to sprout were frozen out in early June, replanted, and frozen again in July. Very few crops were actually harvested, and of those that were, the yields were very poor. In turn, food and grain prices skyrocketed — for example, in 1815, oats sold for $0.12 a bushel but by the next year, a bushel would set you back $0.92.
And the story was the same across the world: - The potato crop in Ireland rotted in the ground resulting in widespread starvation.
- In England, France and Germany wheat crops failed leading to bread shortages and food riots and looting.
- Northern China was also hard hit with thousands of people starving to death.
- While in southern Asia, torrential rains triggered a cholera epidemic that killed many more.
The year 1816 went on to earn another, rather more morbid nickname, “Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death“.
For more from farmanddairy.com, click here.
Grand Solar Minimum
Solar Cycle 25 will likely be a mere stop-off on our descent into the next Grand Solar Minimum — a period of even further reduced temperatures and crop yields (research Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715).
And there are other researchers still insisting there won’t be a solar cycle 25 at all.
While the excellent analysis from Valentia Zharkova suggests that all four of the Sun’s magnetic fields will go out of phase in 2020, which blows any IPCC ‘warming’ out of the water (click here for more).
One way or another, the cold times are returning — it’s just a matter of when.
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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift
MORE OF THE GLOBAL WARMING THE UNITED NATIONS IS TAXING US TO DEAL WITH ?
What is going to happen is being covered up, and will result in much additional suffering..I assume this can all be lumped under “Crimes against Humanity”? At the trials in Germany , after WW2 , those convicted of these crimes were hung.
If “they” revealed to the world that a Grand Solar Minimum was coming bringing floods/draughts, increased volcano/earthquake activity, shorter growing seasons, food shortages, famine, global population decrease… the world’s people would go bezerk. panic and chaos would ensue. Economies would definately colapse. Population control is better served by leading a false narrative like “it’s climate change and for a little tax we can stop it” than “we are powerless and people will die” until it’s upon us.
No one is served by lying. The Governments of the world could be proactive and take immediate steps to help the world deal with the upcoming disaster, but they won’t. The Global elite are making their plans in private. Only Countries like Russia and China are preparing their people. Putin has spent billions on green houses and nuclear powered ice breakers, and Xi is building ghost cities for the upcoming population dislocation. The West will go down in flames, or should I say, go down in snow and ice. I fully expect at least an 75% reduction in global population , and maybe much more. In order to see a larger picture realize this: the Kali Yuga is ending and mother nature is preparing to clean house.
Note to self: even though NASA is patting itself on the back for their “accurate” sunspot forecast, I seem to recall that the actual sunspot count last cycle was significantly less than forecast. If they are using the same forecasting tools this go-around, I expect the sunspot count will be even lower.
Exactly, & when there was a ‘burst’ of 2 or 3 spots it was a big deal.
What’s going to happen, is what happened last time. The world will continue to unfold despite all the boo hoo. It’s all cyclic whether you like it or not.
It will be much worse this time. Unimaginably worse.
Few people grow their own food and the population is crowed into massive cities with “just in time deliveries” at the grocery stores.
People have become weak and dependent. What do you think will happen in the cities when the EBT cards stop working?
I’m buying new skis.
I’m getting some too
My wife just bought an new winter jacket at Canada goose!
No matter what enjoy what you can and make the best of what you have!
See you on the hills!
During the Maunder Minimum {2} two Magnetic Fields on the Sun went off line . This time all {4} Four will go off line. This is saying that it is going to be twice as bad as the Maunder Minimum. Ok my only question is ,Is Valentia Zharkova using NASA DATA on SUN MAGNETIC FIELDS? or and I pray she is getting her data from her equipment. Does anybody know for sure where Valentia Zharkova is getting her data? If it is NASA then it can not be trusted. With her % rate on being right im thinking she has her own equipment and we have a good idea what is ahead of us.
So if this is all true and so dramatic, how come no reputable, un-biased news service (for example the BBC) has got on this?. And why have there been no TV documentaries highlighting the risk?
Is every single news and information service in the world a political apologist for global warming ?
Prof Lockwood in his youtube video on Total Solar irradiance (TSI) points out that the LIA started 50 years before the Maunder Minimum. He also points out that the drop in TSI from Cycle 23 to Cycle 24 has been measured and the further reduction to a GSM is thereby calculable, and not that big. All that suggests that the MM was not the direct cause of the LIA, but they share a root cause. The same argument applies to the Dalton, but with the chilling starting after the DM had begun.
Amen. How could any model not account for the variable output of the sun? And to even account for the sun’s output, you would need to have a humongous data base to make your most educated guess. How can you base any projections with such limited data such as using temperatures from only the last 100-150 years? Global warming is pure hype, nonsense and the highest feat of legerdemain ever attempted in world history. All in the name of not saving the planet, but taxing it to death to pay for the expansion of Marxism and the death of society.
I’ve been observing the same thing from various sources of solar observatory. I always feel skeptic towards this climate change and it’s increasing temperature forcast/prediction for coming years.
To me, its just a normal natural cycle Greenhouse gas may trap and heat up the atmosphere, there is no denying temperature changes.
But in which way does the change lead? Is it Warmer or colder? It all depend on the sun..after that, the activity we have here on the Earth.
Predicting temp changes results from a tremendous amount of research and intuitive knowledge of the past 1000 years, yes global warming is normally cyclic, yes we contribute to the warming-but to what degree? this is one of many variables nobody has an answer to because there is no prior background knowledge before the past 100 years and even that is sketchy to say the least as records not being kept properly results in unfair bias, which leads us to the controversy we have today… all I can say is we have to take everyones research into count as all information is vital in this situation… even if we are changing tides or things seem fine for now, why not try and make the earth a more beautiful and healthy place to live for our descendants?