The Climate Prediction Center, NWS has raised the likelihood of El Niño at the end of 2018 to 70%.
Due to the above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific, currently sitting at +0.11C, it is predicted that by October the El Niño threshold of +0.5C will be met.
This climate phenomenon dramatically alters weather patterns all over the globe.
- Colder winters are felt in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean.
- Warmer-than-average temperatures occur over western and central Canada along with the western and northern United States.
- For the Gulf Coast, wetter and cooler than average conditions are more likely to occur, while drier and cooler than average conditions are more likely in central and eastern U.S.
- Serious droughts occur in Africa hitting crop production and economic growth.
- For Australia, El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and an increased risk of bushfires. Of Australia’s ten driest years on record, seven occurred during El Niño years, and 18 of the 27 events since 1900 have triggered droughts.
But there are many other variables which affect our climate.
The deep, protracted Grand Solar Minimum we’re headed into will further increase weather extremes at either ends of the scales — regions with severe drought will experience biblical flash flooding, while brutally cold and dry winters will be punctuated by exceptional storm systems.
Even with many other variables general, global-average trends will remain consistent.
Temperatures will drop as the sun continues to shut down, and precipitation will decrease as more and more ice (moisture) is retained at the poles, as glaciation snowballs.