Crop Loss Extreme Weather GSM 

Historic Freeze Returns To SE Asia; + Snow, Rain, Cold Keeps U.S. Farmers From Planting Corn, Yet America Continues To Sell To China

Historic Freeze Returns To SE Asia

The first week-or-so of May will see another unusually frigid mass of polar cold sweep Southeast Asia.

The cold air is forecast to descend as far south as Vietnam, Laos and Thailand.

After recently breaking its low temperature record for April, Laos is expected to bust its record low for May, too.

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) April 29 – May 1 [].

Also, shifting to South America, a cold front is advancing ‘up’ the continent with frost noted in Patagonia and also a remarkable -3.2C (26F) logged at San Antonio Oeste, Argentina. Temperatures will drop sharply as we enter the weekend, even at tropical latitudes — a chill that will threaten to further reduced already ropy-looking Argentinian and Brazilian crop estimates.

And I’ll conclude this brief southern hemisphere roundup with Australia where a fierce blast of polar cold is also on the cards as we enter early May:

Snow, Rain, Cold Keeps U.S. Farmers From Planting Corn

Late-season snow, heavy rains, and record cold are resulting in mounting planting delays across the U.S. (and Canada). “It’s just too cold for corn,” said Iowa farmer Kelly Nieuwenhuis, who farms 3,000 acres in O’Brien County.

Nationally, the planting pace is dragging, with only 7% of corn acreage and 3% of soybeans planted through April 24–less than half the acres planted at this time last year, reported the USDA–a gov agency tasked with stabilizing markets.

Focusing in on Iowa, America’s largest corn grower, this year is seeing the state’s slowest planting pace since 2013.

Adding to the planting pressures are global fertilizer, pesticide and herbicide shortages; and while I consider these inputs poisons, they are required by our modern, mono-cropping agricultural industry to achieve anything like decent yield: for every 1% decline in fertilizer usage there is a corresponding 1% decline in yield (with similar numbers for pesticides and herbicides).

Farmers already are complaining about fertilizer prices, which have jumped 300% or more due to supply chain concerns. In addition, the U.S. has imposed trade sanctions on Russia, a major exporter of fertilizers.

Nieuwenhui said some growers are worried about whether they’ll have fertilizer for next year’s growing season.

“It has everyone on edge,” he said. “They’re not sure how those supply chain issues will work out.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (two agricultural powerhouses), combined with planting uncertainty elsewhere (including the U.S., Argentina, Brazil and Kazakhstan), is driving food prices higher and higher, globally. Ukraine is the world’s seventh-largest corn producer, eighth-largest wheat grower and the global leader in sunflowers — Ukraine and Russia combined provide approx. 30% of the total global grain supply, reductions here impact the entire world.

U.S. farmers have until early-May to plant corn before worries of lost yields begin being realized, with the window for soybeans extending until late May or early June.

“About the third week of May, you’re guaranteed to have some yield loss (on corn)”, said Mark Licht, an Iowa State University assistant agronomy professor. Then after that, Nieuwenhuis added: “People start to get nervous.”

May commences this weekend and the latest forecasts (shown below) are suggesting further delays.

Large swathes of the Midwest are expected to see severe cold and heavy rain over the next week, with Iowa expecting up to 1.5 inches of precipitation, according to Justin Glisan, the state climatologist.

Equally troublesome is Iowa’s soil temperature which is approx. 6F below average this month. It’s usually in the low to mid-50s this time of year, added Glisas, but this month looks like it will be among the top 10 coldest Aprils on record.

And May isn’t looking much better:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) April 28 – May 9 [].

Additional rounds of late-season snow are also on the cards for many:

GFS Total Snowfall (inches) April 29 – May 15 [].

The Consumer Price Index climbed 8.5% in March, the largest increase since 1981. This was predominantly driven by energy and fuel rises, but spiraling food prices also had an impact with farm goods making up about 20% of every dollar spent at the grocery store.

Additionally, corn and soybeans are used to feed livestock, either directly or indirectly: higher grain prices = higher meat prices.

Yet while the risk of shortages mount…

…America Continues To Sell To China

Another 1.09 million mt of US corn has been sold to China –the fourth significant order this month– raising expectations that the Asian importer is turning to U.S. supply to help plug the loss of supply from Ukraine.

China has raced to the top of the global list of corn importers, and imported just under 8 million mt of Ukrainian corn in the 2021 calendar year, according to the Agricensus Export Dashboard. However, the Russian invasion has curtailed exports, with Ukraine’s major deep sea ports either blockaded or severely damaged, making it impossible to load the panamax vessels that typically ply that route.

The Chinese have been increasing their purchases each week through April.

“Old crop Ukrainian business was canceled. And they had to buy… one way or another,” said a trader.

Beside turning to U.S. corn, China has also opened its gates to corn imports from Myanmar, with the volume bought in March surging 640% versus the same point of last years.

“I suspect there will be additional purchases still to come… China has little coverage for June-Aug, as well as Sep-Jan. There is still a lot of work to be done… A storm is brewing and the world’s consumers need to wake up,” one broker said.

That shortage has also renewed rumors about the possibility that Brazilian corn could finally be allowed as an export option for China, perhaps even within the next month (pending strict GMO checks). However, given the delayed planting and poor yields mounting across South America, Brazil accepting any large order from China would, as they would re. the U.S., raise eyebrows; but as we see time and time again, nation’s are more than willing to risk their own domestic supply in order to fulfill contracts.

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13 Thoughts to “Historic Freeze Returns To SE Asia; + Snow, Rain, Cold Keeps U.S. Farmers From Planting Corn, Yet America Continues To Sell To China”

  1. John Galt's Offspring

    This from Corey’s Digs explains the vested interests in getting rid of local farmers, cattle, hogs, and all that. We are being forced into becoming vegans and vegetarians HOWEVER, these people miss some nutrition that animal products actually do give. My guess is that the Powers That Be will still have Kobe beef, etc.

  2. Martin

    May in Moscow will start with frosts

    Weekends in the russian capital promise to be cool.
    April will end with frosts. And the first of May will not please with heat.
    Only on May 3, the air temperature will come in line with the calendar.
    The temperature is 3…5 degrees below the climate norm.
    The world is very accommodated these days, but the cycle will soon be broken.
    I think it’s time for Russia to block all heating supplies to Europe, they don’t need it as it’s the hottest year on Earth isn’t it!? Maybe that will wake them up.
    It seems Russia knows that we will not be entering in hot days or plenty days.
    The warmists don’t have a plan B, they are too quiet.
    The limit is coming, and there’s no turning back if you’re not prepared.
    Listen to the Cap.!

  3. M C

    Crazy times indeed.
    In the northern Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, hundreds of forest fires have broken out in recent weeks, eating up tinder-dry pine forests, including around Dharamsala, home of the Dalai Lama.

  4. Atom man

    Very interesting – looks like we are just one BIG volcanic eruption away from another “year without Summer”. If everything in the Universe is connected by strong, invisible threads, I guess I will call if karma if it should happen.

  5. Don Ready

    Thanks for your great work Cap. I am sending a donation.
    The fertilizer shortage is not what you think. I have cropped for 40 years. Nitrogen by far gives the biggest bang. Most corn and wheat fields wasted about 50% of the N applied. If it becomes scarce, smaller more frequent doses will be applied. The 1% 1% ratio you suggest is not true. The amount released by the soil varies hugely based on the weather, as does the actual necessary applied amount. In Quebec over 10 years, the economic N rate varied from 80 to 170 lb per acre.

    1. Ray


      I have a little popular science book from the 1930s which says exactly that – nitrogen is the best thing for increasing yields. It is especially good for lawns apparently; grass is more avid than most weeds for nitrogen, and a well-nitrogened lawn will come good without further effort.

      People seem to have known much of what is valuable in basic science a century ago!

  6. Dallas Schneider

    Saturday Morning 30 April 2022 SW Florida South Sarasota County
    It appears the tropical climate that normally starts on 1 June has started.
    Last night we had the tropical downpour type thunderstorm. It only dropped 0.3 inch, but we have another heavy storm predicted for today, 82% chance.
    Let’s see what it brings.

    1. Dallas Schneider

      The Saturday storm dropped a full 1.0 inch of rain.
      Now this is more like the summer tropical downpours
      we normally get, only not this time of year.

  7. Buffett's Brain Altered Boy Plato

    Megayachts and the Covid/Climate Change Oligarch(s) ‘n Eugenicists

    Before the war the yacht industry was experiencing an historic boom.
    When Mr Marshall started building yachts over 40 years ago, he said there were maybe a total of 24 boats over 30 metres on the water. Today there are more than 5,000, according to SuperYacht Times.
    Richard Lambert, whose yacht brokerage firm Burgess reported a record-breaking $2.2bn [Twitter,Tesla, Pfizer Big Tech/Pharma net worth gain/lose tens/hundreds of $Billions often in a single day] in sales last year, says the global yacht market has seen a stunning increase.
    Yacht sales, new builds and yacht charters are all at record highs and further growth is projected into 2022, aided in part by the [engineered] plandemic(s), he said.
    For the ultra-wealthy, a visit to your private floating island is among the safest options for travel, and expanded work from home flexibility means these trips can be indefinite, with billion-dollar deals made from the Caribbean blue.

    meanwhile at the University of East Anglia…

    Covid denial to climate denial: How conspiracists are shifting focus

    How high-profile scientists felt tricked by group denying climate change

    Climate change: Don’t let doom win, project tells worriers
    A new project has been launched to address rising climate anxiety in students at the University of East Anglia.

    Climate change: How can I deal with my eco-anxiety? [timely advise from +/-18 yo Rachel Hurst for the younger zombies]
    Rachel Hurst is a student at the University of East Anglia helping other students to address their climate anxieties through on-campus climate cafes.
    Mommy [with the exact same name as young Rachel above] at the same University of East Anglia must be pretty proud of the new Grinch replacement.

    … and the meanwhile/real-time preview for the rest of the world from China… Plan B is Plan A with fences and sticks

    More than 340 million people in China have been placed under some form of lockdown have been ordered to stay confined at home, except when undergoing periodic rounds of mass testing. Anyone who tests positive is whisked away to quarantine centers, some with living conditions that include 24/7 lights and no privacy across tens of thousands of beds.

    ‘Entry only. No exit:’ Beijing sees more COVID closures as anger grows in Shanghai and the other 340 million people in China… that’s a bunch…
    Signs placed outside Chinese residential complexes read “Entry only. No exit.”
    Apr 30th 2022
    ONE CONSEQUENCE of imposing a pandemic lockdown on Shanghai, China’s worldliest and stroppiest city, is a stream of smartphone videos showing officials being yelled at by locals. As this metropolis of 25m people approaches a month of near-paralysis, these filmed confrontations have taken on a darker tone. Social-media posts show locked-in residents shouting at visiting delegations of officials that they have no food, or that government rations are rotten when delivered. There are videos of Shanghai citizens tearing down green metal fences that suddenly appeared around apartment blocks and streets designated as “hard quarantine” sites, after covid-19 cases were found nearby. Other locals filmed their neighbours being beaten by white-overalled guards for defying pandemic controls. A Shanghai blogger released “Voices of
    April”, a six-minute compilation of protest slogans chanted from windows, citizens’ complaints live-streamed from grim quarantine centres, anguished telephone calls to government hotlines, and other recorded moments of discontent. Shared widely as an online video, it was viewed more than 100m times before censors set to work deleting every version they could find. This draconian response was an own goal, as even relatively sheltered, apolitical netizens across the country were given a glimpse of censorship at
    work in real time. These rare displays of public anger in tightly policed China have made headlines worldwide. In the leafy embassy districts of Beijing, 1,100km north of Shanghai, envoys ask one another whether a crisis looms for the ruling Communist Party. As China’s pandemic controls become ever more openly repressive, some foreigners wonder whether growing brutality indicates that the machinery of state is malfunctioning. Behind closed doors, foreign diplomats and business bosses debate whether a public loss of trust in the party’s competence might complicate the year’s big political event: a congress expected to crown Xi Jinping China’s supreme leader for a further five years, or even for life. Some of those questions are the wrong ones to ask.
    In a country with a free press, a functioning opposition or a political system that set any store by the rights of individuals, scenes of mass hunger in Shanghai, China’s most affluent city, would already be a vulnerability for Mr Xi—especially when the concurrent lockdowns imposed on dozens of less privileged cities are added to the tally sheet of China’s pandemic-control costs and benefits. After all, for two years now Mr Xi has been lionised by propaganda outlets as the “commander-in-chief of a people’s war” against
    covid, whose stringent but benevolent strategies have saved millions of lives, demonstrating the superiority of Communist Party rule over decadent, liberty-obsessed Western democracies. Yet as it is, images of Shanghainese being clubbed as they tear down fences do not by themselves mean that China’s machinery of power is misfiring. Bossy, even arbitrary or irrational orders that must be obeyed are a feature of Communist Party rule working as intended, not a bug. China’s covid response is a utilitarian experiment. To stop the virus from killing millions in a country with lots of unhealthy, poorly vaccinated old people and a weak health-care system, leaders have spent two years locking down cities and regions unlucky enough to harbour cases. In return, most of China’s 1.4bn people have lived in an orderly, largely covid-free society, albeit one marked by intrusive surveillance and movement-tracking that most Westerners would never accept. In China’s majoritarian system, minorities who resist the party’s will must be crushed. In other contexts those minorities may be ethnic, religious or ideological, or unlucky sorts in the way of a party priority. In all cases, dissent is treated as sabotage. Some anger on display in Shanghai arguably stems from locals’ shock at being on the wrong end of a minority-majority divide for once. If they were a bit less paranoid, party bosses might be somewhat comforted by complaints heard in Shanghai. Citizens filmed shouting at officials are demanding more government help, not calling for a revolution. Even those silenced “Voices of April” are hardly subversive. That video includes recordings of Shanghai citizens pleading for officials to admit loved ones to hospital or to distribute rations as promised. Party workers are heard sighing for superiors to issue better orders. In another clip a lorry driver thanks a kindly policeman for bringing him food. These voices fit within Chinese traditions of citizens petitioning those in power for aid or redress. Still they were censored. Nor are China’s angry voices accusing party chiefs of having made a mistake by pursuing a zero-covid strategy until now. Rather, most are expressing disappointment at how badly it is working in Shanghai and other cities, and alarm at its spiralling economic and social costs. It does not help that party chiefs spent two years over-claiming for policies that were always a least-bad option in a country with China’s chronic health woes. Instead of reckoning honestly with the trade-offs inherent in their strict approach, officials and
    propaganda outlets called it a wise and kindly choice that helps all Chinese people. Then those same official voices quickly pivoted back to their preferred pandemic narrative: the many downsides of covid responses in the West. Now, the disadvantages of China’s policies are in turn becoming hard to hide.
    If party history is any guide, public anger is rarely by itself a threat to Chinese leaders. Popular discontent matters when it gives cover to rival factions within the elite, allowing them to argue that poor performance is undermining the party’s claim to rule. A flawless 20th Party Congress for Mr Xi later this year may rest on eliminating all possible rivals, and making others carry the can if covid continues to batter China. Before then, if party leaders are at all vulnerable, it is because they look incompetent, not because their ruthlessness [of mostly big city folks] has been caught on camera.

    … and meanwhile in the oblivious USSA, they’re well into the Johnny Depp/ Amber Heard six week high focus/diversion publicity trial… ‘Amber Turd’ Goes Viral After Johnny Depp Testifies Amber Heard Covered His Bed in Poop as Revenge… all beyond being right out of the “Idiocracy” movie.

    … meanwhile to “circle back” again there’s No Escape for Arrested Russian SuperYacht(s) – May 1, 2022 [boat drinks… ’cause it’s all going as planned]

  8. Yukon Jack

    To cold for corn? What? I thought we were facing imminent doom from runaway global warming!

    “The bad gas CO2 isn’t working like our computer models say” – air head IPCC scientist.

    I have a question. If humans burned over a trillion barrels of oil thus far, plus an equally huge amount of coal and natural gas, where did all that heat go? I thought about that and came to the only conclusion I could think of – it went into outer space. Burning any carbon based molecule turns into CO2 and H2O and the heat first goes into the air, but over time those vibrating molecules loose their heat (vibration) as radiation which goes in all directions but eventually just goes into the sky toward the stars.

    So then I thought, even if CO2 is doing something – it doesn’t actually stop the inevitable – that all heat goes into space one way or another. Sunlight only adds to the system in the day, and in the winter time, sunlight in Canada doesn’t really warm things up much. So this idea our children will not know snow is ludicrous.

    I can’t imagine that if CO2 goes up more, say to 450 ppm or higher how would that stop snow in Canada? It wouldn’t. Canada would be freezing ass cold regardless of CO2 concentration levels. So like I always say, I’ll believe in global warming when palm trees grow in Minneapolis – something I know is never going to happen in my lifetime.

    1. Magmasaurus Rex

      Yukon, we all know that space is a perfect infinite vacuum with the Earth located pretty much at the centre of it… much like a giant meatball with oil wells encased within an inwardly reflective and ever increasing AGW accumulating CO2 greenhouse gas shell that’s effectively floating within the giant Electroverse sized well insulated “vacuum bottle” of infinite outer space… so all the trapped radiated solar heat from the sun along with all the the trapped heat from the burnt hydrocarbons including forest fires and the trapped heat from all the volcanoes and magma is all contained and trapped within the increasingly thick shell of AGW CO2 essential trace gas [that makes up 1:2500th of the atmosphere] surrounding the planet that is starting to fry our minds so we don’t get it… so (luckily) it’s no wonder that the cool heads/scientists at the IPCC are sounding the alarm already… there’s no conspiracy here, we just need to stop eating meat and burning hydrocarbons like yesterday already, capiche? Sheesh, I figured everybody knew that by now, we’re burnin’ up Amigo… and we only have a few years left! Salud.

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