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Grand Solar Minimum and the Swing Between Extremes

Research shows “blocking” persistence increases when solar activity is low, causing weather patterns to become locked in place at high and intermediate latitudes for prolonged periods of time.

During a Solar Minimum, the jet stream’s usual Zonal Flow (a west–east direction) reverts to more of a Meridional Flow (a north-south direction).

This is exaggerated further during a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM), like the one we’re entering now, and explains why regions become unseasonably hot or cold and others unusually dry or rainy, with the extremes lasting for an extended period of time.

Zonal flow (left) vs Meridional flow (right) — more HERE.

Mikhaël Schwander, et al, 2017 — “The zonal flow characteristic of westerly types is reduced under low solar activity as the continental flow for easterly and northerly types is enhanced. This is also confirmed by the higher blocking frequency over Scandinavia under low solar activity.”

And the Schwander paper, entitled “Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of central European weather types from 1763 to 2009”, goes further:

“The 247-year-long analysis of the 11-year solar cycle impact on late winter European weather patterns suggests a reduction in the occurrence of westerly flow types linked to a reduced mean zonal flow under low solar activity. Based on this observational evidence, we estimate the probability to have cold conditions in winter over Europe to be higher under low solar activity than under high activity.”

The Sun appears to be slipping into its next Grand Solar Minimum cycle–a multidecadal spell of reduced solar output where the solar disc can be devoid of sunspots for months or even years at a time.

The result on Earth’s climate will be one of violent swings between extremes. Intense bursts of heat will linger in one area, while a teeth-chattering chill will dominate nearby — and then the regions will “switch”. It’s this unpredictable chopping and changing that will hasten the failure of our modern food production systems — crops will fail, on a large scale, and famine will quickly ensue.

Overall, Earth’s temperature trends colder during a GSM as the Sun’s output sinks lower and lower (increasing cloud nucleation, for one). However, not ALL regions experience the chill. As with the previous GSM (the Maunder Minimum 1645-1715), areas like the Arctic, Alaska, and S. Greenland/N. Atlantic actually warm during bouts of otherwise “global” cooling — NASA reveals the phenomenon in their Maunder Minimum temperature reconstruction map:

Temp change between 1780 (a year of normal solar activity) and 1680 (a year within the depths of the Maunder Minimum) — NASA.

History is repeating.

Earth’s climate is cyclic, never linear.

The Arctic appears to be warming again -slightly- but in line with the historically low solar activity we’re currently experiencing and it’s effect on the jet stream, and not due to Man’s irrelevant CO2-excretions.

Furthermore, if you remove the Arctic’s, Alaska’s and S. Greenland’s/N. Atlantic’s temperature readings from the UAH global lower atmosphere data set, you’re left with a dramatically cooler planet.

The COLD TIMES are returning folks, the lower-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow.

Even NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) seeing it as “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

Winter 2020-2021 is going to be brutal.

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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

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One Thought to “Grand Solar Minimum and the Swing Between Extremes”

  1. Mervyn Hobden

    As the American scientist. Y.H.Ku remarked, many years ago, ‘Nature is non-linear, even the pendulum of Galileo is controlled by a second order, non-linear differential equation.’ If we cannot even exactly quantify the motion of a pendulum using linear algebra, why do we persist in the belief that we can use it to quantify the long term performance of a highly non-linear system like climate?

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