Articles GSM 

Grand Solar Minimum 101: The Future Looks Cold

In recent years, the Sun has been at its weakest state in more than a century. This is revealed by the sunspot count (shown below)–a great barometer for solar activity.

Sunspot count–from solar cycle 12 to the start of solar cycle 25.

The Sun’s output ebbs and flows on a roughly 11-year cycle.

As visualized above, the most recent solar cycle (24) finished up closely matching those of ‘The Centennial Minimum’ (≈1880-1914) — the previous multi-cycle period of low output–otherwise known as a ‘Grand Solar Minimum’ (GSM).

Grand Solar Minimums themselves can also range in depth and length, and, crucially for all of Earth’s inhabitants, these factors determine the severity of the accompanying ‘global cooling’.

The Centennial Minimum was a relatively modest GSM.

Conversely, one of the strongest on record was the ‘Maunder Minimum’ (1645-1715). The MM, as documented by NASA, sent Europe and North America into a “deep freeze”: “From 1650 to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today.”

The above facts are no longer permitted in mainstream scientific debates, and calling them out sees you instantly dismissed as a conspiracy theorist. History, however, will view this censorship very poorly, and will see it as an illustration of the power of propagandizing. Discovery, it would appear, is no longer welcome in the field of climate science — we apparently know all that there is to know. But in reality, this suppression is a necessity if the AGW train is to keep on rolling. It stands that the return of a cyclically waning Sun –which is indeed what we’re seeing today– would instantly flush alarmists’ claims of never-ending temperature increases down the proverbial pan.

Furthermore, and rather curiously, while Earth’s overall temperature trends colder during prolonged bouts of low solar activity, not all regions experience the chill. As visualized in NASA’s ‘Maunder Minimum Reconstruction Map’ (shown below), areas such as the Arctic, Alaska, and the North Atlantic actually warm during spells of otherwise ‘global’ cooling — this appears to chime with what we’re seeing today, and, unlike the baseless ‘Polar Amplification Theory’, could explain why the Arctic is warming while the Antarctic is cooling.

Temp change between 1780 (a year of normal solar activity) and 1680 (a year within the depths of the Maunder Minimum) — NASA.

The Sun also goes through Grand Solar MAXIMUMS–periods of unusually high solar activity. The most recent maximum –‘The Modern Maximum‘– ran through the years 1914 –the end of the Centennial Minimum– to 2007. Coincidentally, global temperatures increased during this period (aka “catastrophic global warming”), and they have only recently, after a multi-year lag –tied to ocean inertia– started to come back down (-0.34C since 2016, according to the UAH, and falling).

But back to previous Grand Solar Minimums, ‘The Dalton Minimum’ was another key one — it ran from 1790 to 1820, and is clearly identifiable in the sunspot chart below:

Sunspot count–from solar cycle 12 to the start of solar cycle 25.

Like the deeper Maunder before it, the Dalton brought about a period of lower-than-average global temperatures.

Historical documentation reveals that the Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2C decline over just 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production. Therefore, modern notions that a GSM would decrease temperatures by just 0.01-0.02C are another ‘explain-away’ fallacy. However, this mainstream admission –that GSMs result in cooling– could be seen as a positive, because we’re no longer arguing if the phenomena exists or not, we’re now only debating its impact.

The Mechanics

Low solar activity impacts Earth’s weather/climate via a number of different mechanisms.

The most notable is the reduction of energy entering the jet streams which reverts the jet’s usual strong and straight ZONAL flow to a weak and wavy MERIDIONAL one. In turn, and depending on which side of the stream you’re on, you’re either in for a spell of unseasonably cold or warm weather and/or a period of unusually dry or wet conditions:

This is a phenomenon long-predicted by those who study the Sun, and it’s one forecast to intensify as the Grand Solar Minimum continues its deepening — all of us are now watching this play out in real-time, whether we know it or not:

Along with low solar activity’s impact on the jet streams, other ‘global cooling’ mechanisms include: the great conjunction, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and also The Beaufort Gyreand its immense impact on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

“The next 30 years will be a cold,” so says climate scientist Dr. Willie Soon (see below). But I question what it will take for the IPCC and their MSM lapdogs to admit that what they’ve been pedaling for the past 30+ years was based on a warped ideology, and not science. Logic has now been twisted so as to mean that Arctic outbreaks (renamed Polar Vortexes) are a direct result of global warming, i.e. warming = cooling, which is a perfect example of what Orwell dubbed “doublethink”: the acceptance of contrary opinions or beliefs at the same time, especially as a result of political indoctrination. And I worry that the draconian future Orwell described is fast materializing; I fear the climate will be the least of people’s concerns in the coming years, as we seem to be destroying civilization all by ourselves: COVID passports, energy shortages and ration cards, anyone…?

Prepare for the cold — learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

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17 Thoughts to “Grand Solar Minimum 101: The Future Looks Cold”

  1. Kenneth Heck

    Why not discuss the year without a summer (1816) caused by the eruption of Mount Tambora? The Mount Katmai eruption in Alaska in 1912 was the strongest of the 20th century. Did it contribute to the Glassberg Minimum? These cold periods could be due to a combination of factors, not just the sunspot cycle.

    1. prioris

      Sunspot cycles aka cosmic ray levels are the PRIMARY contributor of cold cycles
      Volcano emissions into stratosphere are the SECONDARY contributors to these cold cycle.
      It has been discussed in many places

      1. Brett Keane

        As solar UV strength weakens, Heavier Protons eg Fe, can penetrate our magnetic Bands deeper and stir up Volcanic activity to further darken our atmosphere.
        So Polar wander etc results from weaker Equatorial Pressures and more cold outbreaks occur. Roughly speaking. Brett Keane

      2. Kenneth Heck

        Thank you for your reply. I would like more data on the relative effects of sunspot cycles compared to volcanic emissions., if possible.

        1. Dru Simerson

          Some say the volcanic activity is due to the disruption of the cosmic rays due to the solar minimum too.

          1. Crispin Pemberton-Pigott

            These phenomena appear together. There is no mystery here: low solar activity contracts the heliosphere which leads indirectly an increase in activity from one class of volcanos – those with high silica magma impacted by more galactic cosmic rays (GCR’s). Happens every time. Therefore global cooling from “a set of phenomena that repeat “is the correct analysis. It is not one aspect operating alone. As the solar activity is the cause, and the others are attendant effects, it is reasonable to observe solar activity as the precursor.

            GCR-stimulated global cooling does occur independently of local solar activity, for example when there is a supernova in our region of space. However these are rare.

    2. Mervhob

      I fully agree Kenneth, these events had a dramatic effect on climate, from proto-Krakatoa onwards in 535AD to these more recent events. Both Climate and weather are examples of non-linear systems and while we may approximate behaviours in the short term using linear algebra, generally, except under very carefully defined boundary conditions, they lack long term physical rigour. This is why Mann et al’s careless use of averaging, completely removed the Medieval climatic optimum and the Little Ice Age.
      Essentially, eigenvectors and other manifestations of linear algebra, can only be applied rigourously to time series to ‘closed’ linear systems. Linear algebra was developed by some not very insightful French mathematicians at the end of the 18th C. Rather than solve the problems laid bare in Newton’s ‘Principia’, they replaced it with an algebraic system in which the problems were less obvious to the careless observer.

  2. saveenergy

    To view where the cold is (you’ll be surprised on how much there is) . + jet streams etc.etc. visit .
    When the site opens (big globe showing winds) click on ‘earth’; menu opens click on ‘temp’ ; (click on ‘earth’ to close menu). use mouse to move globe (left button will show lat & long + temp at any point. if you click ‘Waves’ it clearly shows sea ice extent … whole of Arctic blocked & Antarctic has an area of sea ice larger than Australia ! (that much grows & melts every year).
    Jet streams = height 250 hPa
    [to get the best from the site go to – menu- about ]

    1. Wizard

      Really insightful:

      Is this updated daily, hourly?

      How accurate and up to date is this data

      1. saveenergy

        From the ‘about’ page …
        a visualization of global weather conditions
        forecast by supercomputers
        updated every three hours

        ocean surface current estimates
        updated every five days

        ocean surface temperatures and
        anomaly from daily average (1981-2011)
        updated daily

        ocean waves
        updated every three hours

        updated every thirty minutes

        1. The Mronz

          Very interesting data sets and instantly accessible graphics.
          I note, as a nod to AGW fixation, the so called ‘Misery Index’ only refers to extreme heat and ignores extreme cold.

          1. Daniel

            Extreme cold is shown in blue.

          2. The Mronz

            The blue was missing when I first viewed the graphic.
            Now it makes more sense.
            Perhaps the IPCC got at the feature and managed to delete the appearance of any global areas of miserable cold!

    2. Peter Dawson

      What a wonderful resource – thank you for the link.

  3. Jet A

    1984 and Atlas Shrugged! It is all happening…. Truly amazing.

  4. Joyce Webb

    Interesting data that debunks global warming fear.

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