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The Global Average Temperature Dropped 0.29C Last Month — Now Sits At Just 0.08C Above The 30-Year Baseline

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2021 has come in at 0.08 deg. C above the 30-year baseline. This is down quite a bit (0.29 deg. C) from the October, 2021 value of 0.37 deg. C, and down substantially (0.51C deg. C) from where we were at the beginning of 2020.

A continuation of this downward trend is expected in the coming months/years as La Nina conditions/low solar activity persist.

Saying that, this recent drop has come as somewhat of a surprise — even for me.

For those who check in daily with climatereanalyzer.org (a dataset maintained by the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine), you likely would have expected November’s LT to have held near its October reading of 0.37C–due to daily readings of between 0.4C – 0.7C above the mulitidecadal base prevailing throughout all of November. However, worth remembering here is that Climate Reanalyzer is just a forecast, it relies on models (the GFS) for its predictions, and we all know the trouble relying solely on models can get you into; whereas the UAH uses real-world data collated by satellites to paint its picture.

The far more reliable UAH has spoken, and according to those 15x NASA/NOAA AMSU satellites that measure every square inch of the lower troposphere (where us humans reside), Earth’s temperature cooled quite drastically in November (note also that the satellite data is preferable to ground measurements, with the latter susceptible to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect — see here, too).

A drop of 0.29C takes us to just 0.08C above the baseline and continues the downward trend from 2016. As it stands, Earth’s temperature was actually warmer back in the early-1990s and late-1987.


Delving deeper into the data, as courtesy of former NASA scientist Dr. Roy Spencer, who, in partnership with Dr. John Christy, maintains the UAH dataset, every region of the planet cooled last month, with the largest drop occurring in the Arctic where a plunge of more than 1 Deg. C (from +0.63C to -0.42C) was observed.

Below are the regional LT departures from the 30-year average for the last 2 months, Oct and Nov, 2021.

YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 

2021 10  0.37  0.46  0.27  0.33  0.84  0.63  0.06
2021 11  0.08  0.11  0.06  0.14  0.50 -0.42 -0.29  


Moreover, since its 2016 peak, Earth’s average temperature is down 0.62C. However, irrefutable contradictions to the so-called ‘consensus’, such as this, won’t stop AGW Party members from pursuing their end goal of ‘total climate misinformation’. Stories of linearly-rising global temperatures and rapidly-melting polar sea ice are still being published by a corrupt MSM, stories which are veering ever-further away from our changing climatic reality:


I have no crystal ball, of course, I’m merely using historical documentation and referencing the sunspot record (which extends back 400+ years) to make a forecast.

During prolonged spells of low solar activity, Earth’s terrestrial temperature falls. And with the sun currently on the cusp of its next Grand Solar Minimum (a multidecadal spell of low activity–see link below), and suffering its lowest output of the past 100+ years, the obvious assumption is that the global average temperature will decrease.


The Sun also goes through Grand Solar MAXIMUMS–periods of unusually high solar activity. The most recent maximum –‘The Modern Maximum‘– ran from 1914 to around 2007. Coincidentally, global temperatures increased slightly during this period — a rise today’s activist-pawns would have you believe is correlated to rising atmospheric CO2 levels (aka “catastrophic global warming”).

But now, after an approximately ten year lag –likely due to ocean inertia as well as a record-strong El Nino (2014-16)– Earth’s temperature has started falling again. However, this fall is expected to continue in ‘waves’ — it likely won’t just go straight down.

Taking a closer look at the drop since 2016 (enlarged below), a descending ‘zigzag’ pattern has indeed emerged. Stay with me here, but what we see is an initial plunge (in early-2016 to mid-2017); then a blip back up (to late-2017); a continuation of the plunge (to late-2018); and then a sharp rise back up (peaking in early 2020); then a big fall back down (bottoming early-2021); then a spike back up (to Oct-2021); and now the beginning of the drop back down (Nov-2021).

Also note that all these peaks and troughs land below their previous counterparts — i.e. there is an overall downward trend.


For those still with me, next up should be a continuation of the current drop, which should then bottom-out below the low of early-2021 (down to approx. 0.2C below the baseline), before a temporary climb back up (peaking below that early-2020 high).

I admit that all this is highly dubious, and feel free to take me to task if none of it materializes; but my point is that the climate, like everything else in the universe, is cyclic — there are patterns to be discerned. We humans have been programmed to recognize these universal cycles, we’ve evolved among them. The trouble today is, we’re being instructed not to trust our own instincts and not to tap into our deeply-woven understanding of the cosmos.

Allowing this to happen has been humanity’s biggest mistake.

The UN, and in this case its grubby little IPCC offshoot, is not an all-knowing entity — it is a political body created to control an ever-expanding global population. If we were all free to just stop and think then we would quickly realize that truth lies far beyond the framework of governmental bodies, and that these forces we know of as ‘multinational conglomerates’ have long been in control of our lives, poisoning us both mentally and physically.

Truth can be found in craning your neck back and gazing up at the stars — the best answers come when questions aren’t asked. Just stopping, slowing your breathing, and opening yourself up to cosmogenic forcings are masteries we’ve all long forgotten.

This, I believe, explains why many of us are feeling ‘lost’ and that our lives are ‘spiraling out of our own control’.

Stop…

Turn off the TV/radio/computer/phone…

And do nothing but breathe…


Prepare for what’s coming — learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

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28 Thoughts to “The Global Average Temperature Dropped 0.29C Last Month — Now Sits At Just 0.08C Above The 30-Year Baseline”

  1. Paul

    Excellent data sets.
    Thank you for your truth about Climate.
    Please can you give your opinion on :
    Grand Solar Minimum to 2030
    Dalton or Maunder Minimum heading into.
    The Beaufort Gryle and the time scale for the polar waters heading into the Atlantic Ocean.
    Thank you.

    1. prioris

      Grand Solar Minimum to 2030 –
      The mid point of current solar cycle is June 2025 or earlier. Mid point is the certainty point where we will definitively know for certain. That’s 3 1/2 years or less from now. This is from a conventional science view point.

      I’d say within 2 years, we will have high probability likelihood of knowing what this cycle will be. Current trends say the Eddy Minimum started in 2020. I have always said it started 2016. To me the start in very subjective.

      I think monitoring the cosmic ray levels is better. There may be a one solar minimum cycle delay in the effect on earth as far as cosmic rays because there is a build up or build down of this..

      Dalton or Maunder Minimum – Nobody knows. But at least a Dalton. Could be 25 to 100 years.

      The Beaufort Gryle and the time scale – that can take over a century to transition if it does. In your or my life time, it is not a problem.

      1. Anonymous

        Remember we have been seeing strange anomalies in the outer planets march toward us every six months. Our six months is up in Jan 2022.
        What happens if anything is a wild guess.
        My closest comparison is the Beaufort Gyre reverse direction and freezes Europe. See here what happened on Neptune.
        https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/dark-storm-on-neptune-reverses-direction-possibly-shedding-a-fragment

        Also, more cooling however small is expected in the waters as that Glacier in Iceland is experiencing melting over 60 feet of ice in 24 hours (? rough estimate from memory) the last couple days.
        https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/grimsvoetn/news/149470/Grimsvoetn-volcano-Iceland-glacial-flood-peak-expected-on-Sunday.html
        That’s a fair amount of cold water dumped into the sea. DS

    2. prioris

      Grand Solar Minimum to 2030 –
      The mid point of current solar cycle is June 2025 or earlier. Mid point is the certainty point where we will definitively know for certain. That’s 3 1/2 years or less from now. This is from a conventional science view point.

      I’d say within 2 years, we will have high probability likelihood of knowing what this cycle will be. Current trends say the Eddy Minimum started in 2020. I have always said it started 2016. To me the start in very subjective.

      I think monitoring the cosmic ray levels is better. There may be a one solar minimum cycle delay in the effect on earth as far as cosmic rays because there is a build up or build down of this. So delay effect will kick in 2027.

      Dalton or Maunder Minimum – Nobody knows. But at least a Dalton. Could be 25 to 100 years.

      The Beaufort Gryle and the time scale – that can take over a century to transition if it does. In your or my life time, it is not a problem.

  2. Dallas Schneider

    Thanks Cap for this analysis of the graph.

    I like to graph the peaks and the lows trends. In financial graphs when the highs graph lower and the lows graph higher this forms a triangle before a breakout. Otherwise we have trend channels.

    Now since 2016 the two top peaks graph lower, the next two top peaks the same, and the lows though slight graph lower also. Even slight a drop is a drop.

    Notice how 1995 to 1012 lows are flat.
    The drop in 2009 preceded the 1 Million fish frozen dead in Florida Jan 2010. 11 years later the drop in 2021 had the 700 plus die off in Texas. Seems sudden sharp cold events are peculiarly developing. Let’s watch Jan-Feb 2022 especially.

    Now I was looking at the graph to if there was any other sense I could make of it when I noticed the similar double peaks. One needs to back up a bit to see this so to speak. It is just I recall the sunspots having a double peak which was a precursor to a solar low being mentioned in the literature.

    So look at double peaks 80-83, 88-91, 2016-2019 all three (3) years apart.
    Then 1998-2016 are similar, in between those years more confused depressed spread out over time sort of double-double peaks 2002-2007. Now those were the years of global warming PAUSE that caused Canadian oil man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Strong enough angst to have the agenda renamed “Climate Change” as Global Warming had stopped working.

    So I don’t draw any conclusions from this new look at the graph I have, but perhaps it could help us predict the future or understand the true cause.
    I would like to see how the 13 month Jupiter Conjunction cycle would look compared to the temp graph, as we have the Nov 2024 Jupiter-Saturn connection that will pull the earth 1,000,000 miles away from the sun, producing what should be a 2024-25 extremely cold winter for us all!
    Snowball Earth???

    Stay prepared! Stay warm!
    Thanks again Cap! DS

    1. Cap Allon

      Good comment.
      The truth is most certainly out there, but deciphering the data/patterns is hard — you may be onto something though.

      1. Anonymous

        Thank you Cap! Dallas

  3. Johna

    Thing is Cap nobody who understands how climate really works needs to take you to task as the 0C temp base line is only to support the UN’s agenda (what started as Thatcher’s vendetta on killing of the UK coal industry and unions she hated) of making it look like its getting warmer with CO2. If we look at the paleoclimate and in context the very recent instrumented data, you will see the temperature trajectory is heading down and combined CO2 is heading up (natural outgassing and intrinsic release). There is also the paleoclimate data (hard facts) that for thousands of years after coming out the ice age temperatures were far higher and dipped and we had the medieval warming and two other warmings which were much hotter that what the UN led graphs show. Weirdly MM’s little ice age appears, but either side of this has been described by many climate experts as total rhubarb – and a great discredit as like many others they could be practicing real science. Sceptics of which must also realise that the descend into the next ice age should be as long as the preceding ice age descents, as this is a factual account of how it works. So If (IF) this is wrong then all our ice core data is wrong? But for sure the UN climate models are totally wrong as they base there predictions on flat earth theory which invents the need to have a CO2 feedback to heat the Earth. Joseph Postma has exposed this deception in explicit detail i.e. the Sun drives the temperature and there is only minute CO2 heat transfer inbound (asymptotic) after 250 ppm and no re radiating heat transfer as after the Sun heats the Earth the excess heat goes to space flowing hot to cold – this is the Energy budget. The real problem is its still the MSM who are propping up their corrupt political masters who want more power for their aims. Aims we must crush as they will not listen to reason.

  4. Jacqui Ehninger

    But the UAH report also says:
    The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

    And one can see the general upward trend. What’s the explanation for that then?

    1. Dallas Schneider

      Actually if you take the 1992 – 2012 period the lows are absolutely flat, not upward, the peaks are down trending.
      Saying the cycle is rising this period could be like a cap on a steam kettle, something is suppressing the rise. Then as the rise tries to break through the barrier, it over shoots, as in 2016, then falls back down.

      Bitcoin’s rise to $64,000 last week, with drop back to $55,000 is something similar.

      So the question is, will the pressure to rise continue, or fall back.
      In this climate analysis, looking at the fundamentals of the GSM and the Planetary Alignment, Cosmic Rays enhancing cloud cover………….
      in the words of Dr. Willie Soon, “The next 30 years will be cold”!! DS

    2. Matt Dalby

      The general upward trend only tells us that there has been warming in the past 40 years, and may not be a reliable guide to the future. It will take decades of cooling until temperatures are consistently at levels seen in the 1980’s, so you could still be posting in 2035 that the long term trend is upward (although it will likely be a lot less than +0.14C/decade.
      The explanation for the upward trend was high solar activity combined with major ocean cycles, the Pacific Decadel Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadel Oscillation (AMO), being in their warm phase. As all these things are cyclical, not linear, the effect they had on Earth’s temperature in the past 40 years is not the same as the effect they’ll have during the next 40 years.
      Dallas has a good analogy, although I would use the the tide as an analogy. Imagine going to a harbour at low tide, measuring the depth of the water, then repeating the measurement every (lets say) 15 minutes. Obviously there would be an upward trend for the first 6 hours until high tide. After 7 and a half hours there would be a short term downward trend but the trend since you started taking measurements would still be upward, and would stay positive for a while longer. Which trend should you be looking at and predicting will continue into the future?
      I believe that with the Earth’s temperature we’re effectively just after the peak (high tide), which means that the short term trend (cooling) will continue rather than the longer term trend (warming), but the long term positive trend will persist for a while yet.

  5. Julian

    I’ve been waiting for this update-thanks! I’m very pleased to see a drop simply because it shows the IPCC AGW narrative to be dubious at best. You can’t push AWG when the earth is cooling can you?! (unless you falsify the data, but the whole MSM media narrative across the board is failing simultaneously – Covid/US election fraud/AGW. I sincerely hope that people wake up in droves, and what better factor than the weather to wake them up to the general lies and corruption the MSM and their deep state backers are pushing.

  6. Anonymous

    How many times must it be said,

    There is nothing new under the sun

    1. Deb

      Probably quite a few, lol,since it was first said by King Solomon in Ecclesiastes 1:9 in about 930 B.C.

  7. Deb

    How did the earth ever pull out of previous ice ages with no technological humans around to produce CO2, which according to the AGW crowd, is the only thing that warms the earth?

    Dinosaur farts?

    I’d love to ask Greta that one.

  8. It’s killing me that you have the latest Spencer, and it’s not on his site.

  9. Robert Cannon

    Looks like it steps up in 98, then 2016. In between on avg it’s fairly flat. Wonder why.

    1. Cap Allon

      Not sure if that was rhetorical, but ‘record-strong El Niños’ is the answer.

  10. Juha

    Valentina Zharkova, Jack Eddy, John Casey and many others have come to the same conclusion. we are heading to the cooling period. It is not if, but when and how low we will go. Some estimates are even as much as – 8 Celsius in next decade. So Caps modest -0,2 estimate for early 2022 is well in line with these legends.

    Our lakes here in Finland are already frozen.. one month earlier than normal. My neighbour went icefishing so the ice is thick to walk. Minus 15 Celsius forecast for sunday. We will need heated greenhouses here in north to survive and I’ve just built one 150 m3. Prepare everybody.

      1. Dallas Schneider

        Good going on the heated greenhouse.
        How do you heat it?
        Have you seen this method of heating?
        https://greenhouseinthesnow.com/

        1. Juha

          Diesel heater. I built a traditional double poly. Gothic roof is a must here because of the snow. Even though we live in 61 n latitude, actually we get lot’s of sun shine after the spring equinox. I collect the heat in black painted water barrels and they release the heat during night so no need for diesel later in the spring.

          Yes, I got drawings from Russ and the underground greenhouse idea is excellent. But rather expensive investment per square feet/meter. Maybe someday.

          Eliot Coleman from Maine has done lots of ground breaking pioneering work growing veggies in cold weather. I follow his advises a lot. Sure there are plenty of others market gardeners. Richard Perkins lives almost 60 n latitude, he knows how to grow food here in the north. But it is getting colder..

  11. Greg in NZ

    We’re in the first week of our ‘meteorological’ summer and there’s SNOW forecast for the Southern Alps (New Zealand) this weekend, flurries for Tasmania (Australia) and over 1 METRE has fallen in the past week on the southern Andes (Chile, Argentina) with MORE on the way next week… call that ‘summer’?

    Have astounded a few of my Greta/Gore/Gaia-believing friends over the decades when I’ve (correctly) called for a ‘white’ Christmas here in NZ, ie. snow on the 25th December for our mountains in the South Pacific. It may be high summer downunder yet cold (snowy) fronts can still come a’knocking any time of the year, and my bones are telling me this is (another) one of those years, brrrrrr!

  12. Lela Brister

    Is there any update on the Beaufort Gyre? Is there ice core data showing it’s anomalous current cycle? No pun intended.

  13. Alby

    As a relative newcomer here, can someone tell me what UAH stands for?
    Nowhere are these sort of acronyms explained to the novice reader.

    1. Deb

      The University of Alabama in Huntsville, which is a public research university. (I googled it, lol.)

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