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Earth’s Temperature Saw A Sharp Drop In January, As Did Solar Activity — Global Cooling Is Here, Undeniable, And Set To Intensify

The UAH temperate dataset is maintained by former NASA scientist Dr Roy Spencer and his University of Alabama in Huntsville colleague, climate scientist Dr John Christy.

Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere. Every month, Dr Spencer and Dr Christy update global temperature datasets that represent the piecing together of the temperature data from a total of fifteen instruments flying on different satellites, know colloquially as ‘the UAH’.

The UAH is the only unbiased temperature dataset we truth-seekers have left. No, it should not be taken as gospel, but with the datasets custodians, Spencer and Christy, not bought and owned by the AGW Party, it is, by far and above, the best we have.

Dr Roy Spencer recently had his website demonitzed by Google. His crime? Questioning a scientific theory, which, as we know, is a stance deemed ‘harmful’ in today’s authoritarian society. Show support for Dr Spencer –by sharing his message– and by doing so, hopefully the last remaining bastion of global temperature analysis can remain unadulterated.

Earth’s Temperature Saw A Sharp Drop In January

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2022 has come in at 0.03 deg. C, continuing the overall downward trend since 2016, now down approx. 0.58C deg. C since then.

In other words, it is get harder and harder for the politicized ‘catastrophic global heating’ narrative to be maintained; but as Gustave Le Bo laments: “The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduces them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.”

A continuation of this downward trend is probable over the coming months (with the odd bump along the way: climate is cyclic, after all) as low solar activity, La Nina, and the aftereffects of Hunga Tonga’s monstrous stratospheric eruption continue to influence our climate.


According to the 15x NASA/NOAA AMSU satellites that measure every square inch of the lower troposphere (where us humans reside), planet Earth was actually warmer back in the late 1980s (during the political adoption of the global warming theory):


Below are the various regional LT departures from the 30-year average for the last 13 months. Note in particular the USA48’s stark cool down in Jan compared with Dec (in bold & underlined), with the region down a whopping 1.76C.

YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST
2021 01  0.12  0.34 -0.09 -0.08  0.36  0.50 -0.52
2021 02  0.20  0.32  0.08 -0.14 -0.65  0.07 -0.27
2021 03 -0.01  0.13 -0.14 -0.29  0.59 -0.78 -0.79
2021 04 -0.05  0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02  0.02  0.29
2021 05  0.08  0.14  0.03  0.06 -0.41 -0.04  0.02
2021 06 -0.01  0.31 -0.32 -0.14  1.44  0.63 -0.76
2021 07  0.20  0.33  0.07  0.13  0.58  0.43  0.80
2021 08  0.17  0.27  0.08  0.07  0.33  0.83 -0.02
2021 09  0.25  0.18  0.33  0.09  0.67  0.02  0.37
2021 10  0.37  0.46  0.27  0.33  0.84  0.63  0.06
2021 11  0.08  0.11  0.06  0.14  0.50 -0.42 -0.29
2021 12  0.21  0.27  0.15  0.03  1.63  0.01 -0.06
2022 01  0.03  0.06  0.00 -0.24 -0.13  0.68  0.09


…As Did Solar Activity

Solar Cycle 25’s recent awakening has tempted some to suggest that the cycle will be stronger than its predecessor; but “not so fast,” cautions Dr. Ron Turner, an analyst at the ANSER research institute in Virginia.

Sunspot numbers, a great barometer for solar activity, have just been tabulated for January, and while they continue to outperform the official NASA forecast, “it may be too early to anticipate a strong solar cycle,” says Turner.

This graph, pointed out by Dr Tony Phillips of spaceweather.com, helps explain why:


Turner has been studying solar cycles for many years, and he recalled something pertinent about the previous cycle (SC24): It heated up quickly, much like Solar Cycle 25 is doing now. “I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 and overlaid them on SC25,” explained Turner. “They’re an almost perfect match.”

Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the weakest solar cycle of the past century — its fast, hot onset did not lead to a strong maximum. Turner reiterates, “these early sunspot numbers are not enough to guarantee a strong cycle.”

Note the graph below. It shows how similarly SC25 (green line) is tracking SC24 (pink line). Note also how weak SC25 is when compared with other recent cycles (21, 22, and 23):


Below is SC25 compared with the historically weak cycles of 12, 13, 14, and 16 (1878 to 1933 — the Centennial Minimum).

It’s tracking weaker than those, too.


At least to my mind, SC25 is playing out almost EXACTLY as expected. It has always been my contention that SC26 will be the cycle most likely to drive us down into the true depths of a Grand Solar Minimum.

SC26 takes us into the 2030s, a decade modern civilization will do well to make it to at this rate. I worry that even if we haven’t brought about our own demise by then, that a powerful solar flare might have done the job for us (the biggest threat from which is during the ramp-up of SC25, so now through 2024-25).


Global Cooling Is Undeniable

…however, the prevaricators within the AGW Party will of course sidestep this “issue” and instead continue to use localized heatwaves and droughts (that have historically and periodically ALWAYS occurred) to support their lie.

If you believe in ‘global heating,’ ‘climate broiling,’ ‘Terra-Firma Toasting’ –or whatever the hell you want to label it– then you are part of a grandiose political scam. You are doing harm to society and to our modern civilization. And although you think you’re Earth’s savior (because that’s how they get you), remember that “the road to hell is paved with good intentions,” and that all the do-gooders in the world are really just troublemakers.

As the story goes: “kindly let me help you or you’ll drown, said the monkey putting the fish safely up a tree.”

If you aren’t privy to the facts, or worse still, are willfully blind to them, then this is the danger. The virtuous think they know what is best for EVERYBODY, but their belief is based solely on their own narrow viewpoint. This is isn’t virtuousness, this is a destructive rampage, and one orchestrated from on high.

If you believe in AGW –which is just one modern example– and push for extreme planet-reshaping policies, then you are nothing more than a destructive sheep, a useful idiot, and you need to stop enforcing what you think is best on everybody else. Modern science is an indulgence, largely — it is rarely correct, and rarer still should it be used as a tool to scare the masses into such powerfully dangerous measures.

“Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities” — Voltaire.

People should be free to think, permitted to use their own real-world observations to form their own thoughts and opinions; but clearly, this is not the world we live in. Government-funded labs with their endless production-line of dire climate models and projections should not be required to prove a point as obvious as catastrophic anthropogenic global warming claims to be. CAGW’s impacts should be entirely visible by now having been around for some four+ decades: Whenever we step foot outside it should smack us all in the face. Hard. We should be wading through the risen oceans, and baking in the winter sun. But of course, we are not suffering those fates, because they are/were a fabrication, the newest politicized weapon wielded to control and reshape the masses into working as the powers-that-be see fit.

History has shown us time and time again that it takes a tumultuous, undeniable, world-shaking “truth” to awake the hypnotized masses from their manufactured psychosis. Perhaps global cooling will prove that truth.

And on that note, check out what the U.S. is contending with:

GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Feb 3 – Feb 19 [tropicaltidbits.com].
GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Feb 3 – Feb 6 [tropicaltidbits.com].


And looking further ahead, here’s what the temp models are suggesting mid-Feb could have in store:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Feb 13 – Feb 19 [tropicaltidbits.com].


Stay tuned for updates.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING–in line with historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.

Social Media channels are restricting Electroverse’s reach: Twitter are purging followers, while Facebook are labeling posts as “false” and have slapped-on crippling page restrictions. And most recently, the CCDH has stripped the website of its advertising.

Facebook, in partnership with the ‘fact-checkers’ at USA Today have conspired to restrict my use of the social media platform for 90 days, meaning I can’t post anything new. I’ve been found guilty of contesting a scientific theory, which in today’s world is now considered a ‘violation’:



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38 Thoughts to “Earth’s Temperature Saw A Sharp Drop In January, As Did Solar Activity — Global Cooling Is Here, Undeniable, And Set To Intensify”

  1. john

    The first graph seems to show an upward trend from lower left to upper right. Imagine a linear regression line. I was surprised to see this as i am not a believer in GW.

    1. Cap Allon

      That slight warming (from say, 1980 – 2016) isn’t what’s being denied; rather, it is the forward extrapolations and continuation of this warming trend that is being contested. The modern Grand Solar MAXIMUM ran from the from ≈1920 to the ≈2007 and it delivered the highest solar activity for thousands of years. It has peaked though, and now solar output has effectively dropped off a cliff to its lowest levels in more than 200 years. And most recently, after a decade-or-so lag –which was perhaps tied to ocean inertia– the global temperature is starting to fall. A continuation of this decrease is expected over the coming years/decades in line with further reducing solar activity: a Grand Solar MINIMUM .

    2. TheMronz

      So it’s looking more and more like CO2 has little significance to global climate.
      This leaves the main fossil fuel atmospheric contaminant as particulate aerosols which on aggregate cool the atmosphere.
      Thus by increasing fossil fuel consumption there is increase in particulates and a decrease in atmospheric temperature.
      You can see where this is going: Once the irrelevance of CO2 becomes accepted, ‘climate change’, this time cooling, may again be the fault of fossil fuels….

      1. Brett Keane

        Mronz, Volcanic particulates are building as they do when our magnetic protection is weakened by a Quiet Sun, UV-wise at least. they will totally dominate and help strengthen the cooling now started….
        Brett Keane, NZ.

    3. Ballistic Logos

      5 Places You Should Avoid During Martial Law

      And you can take it to the bank that civil unrest, rioting or subversive activity that no longer serves the government narrative [or amusement like trucker convoys] will, eventually, result in martial law when things start to go too off track for the politicians who fomented it in the first place.

      So no matter how you want to try and square it what this means for you, me and everybody else in this nation is that a military officer will now be administratively in charge of the area placed under martial law.

      He might have others working alongside him or he might not depending, but the men and women under his command will now be placed in charge of law enforcement duties in the same area.

      Considering how task-oriented the military is we have to consider what this means overall when civilians are now part of the problem or potentially part of the problem.

      Sure, they will say they are restoring order, keeping the peace or stopping terrorism but this is only the most tenuous of excuses to get people used to the idea that the military, our military, will be using force against citizens.

      Whatever you think about them and whatever your hopes about them honoring their oaths, given enough time, enough interactions or a good enough excuse it is highly likely that you are going to get the business end one way or the other.

      This could mean you are arrested and detained without trial or representation, it might mean you are beaten or it might mean you are shot and killed, or even blown up. “Them’s the brakes”, as they say.
      Avoiding the Peril of Martial Law
      https://modernsurvivalonline.com/martial-law-places-to-avoid/

      1. LocoLogos

        Trudeau won’t commit to negotiate with truckers, says deploying army [martial law] not “in the cards right now” [when (((they))) say (((they))) are not planning to invoke it… then they are very likely planning to invoke it it… right, Quick Dick McDick?]
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ezu76DmRRIw

        Thank A Trucker or Truckers ww [with martial law] because it’s been in the “planning” for decades
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4ALmyLOUzE
        https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKRYaG2X0Ac2b1d?format=jpg&name=small
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUq4YCxYbjc
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izxKAwBcBu0

        Here is what Prime Minister Trudeau had to say about invoking special powers [War Measures Act – Martial Law] – Mar 19, 2020

      2. Dudley Do-right

        CANADA MARTIAL LAW TO BE IMPLEMENTED BETWEEN OCT 8 AND 16 – October 19, 2021
        We are past the date but the issue has not gone away.
        https://seemorerocks.is/canada-martial-law-to-be-implemented-between-oct-8-and-16/

      3. Ice Age Eugenics and Biodigital-convergence Now.Info

        The Injection Fraud – It’s Not a Vaccine
        By Catherine Austin Fitts
        https://www.globalresearch.ca/injection-fraud-not-vaccine/5714282

        CANADA MARTIAL LAW TO BE IMPLEMENTED BETWEEN… 2021/2022
        We are past the date but the issue has not gone away.
        https://seemorerocks.is/canada-martial-law-to-be-implemented-between-oct-8-and-16/

      4. Re Martial Law in Canada:

        Following are my 3 posts censored on wattsupwiththat. You can see the previous conversation at The Pause Lengthens: No Global Warming For 7 Years 3 Months – Watts Up With That?

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/02/the-pause-lengthens-no-global-warming-for-7-years-3-months/#comment-3447025

        Crooked leftist Ottawa politicians and their “bought” media are spreading lies about the huge Free-Canada truck convoy.

        Here is Justin “L’il Fidel” Trudeau acting like the failed drama teacher he really is:
        https://www.tiktok.com/@quebec_rise_up/video/7060545595965984005?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&q=quebec%20rise%20up&t=1643946355416

        Here is reality in Ottawa. Freedom! Freedom Now!
        https://twitter.com/i/status/1489117445860253704

        Hard to believe, but corrupt GoFundMe has confiscated the $9 million raised by donations for the truckers’ expenses.

        Ezra Levant of Rebel News writes
        @ezralevant
        At the request of Trudeau, @GoFundMe has just stolen $9,000,000 from the truckers. Rather than automatically refunding it to the donors, they say they’re going to give it to groups of their own choosing. What a windfall for Black Lives Matter, Greenpeace and Planned Parenthood!

        Jordan Peterson, Alberta-born, responds:
        Dr Jordan B Peterson
        @jordanbpeterson
        This is far worse than mere theft. Government-sanctioned appropriation from citizens funding lawful opposition. This sets a very very dark precedent
        @JustinTrudeau
        @gofundme

        ________________________________________

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/02/the-pause-lengthens-no-global-warming-for-7-years-3-months/#comment-3446998

        So here is my question for all you Covid-19-vaxxed:
        What would you do if someone deliberately harmed your children?
        Guess what? Chances are, they already did!

        I tried to stop the toxic Covid-vaxxing of your kids for the past 13+ months, without much success.
        Some of your kids will be OK, some will be invalids for life and some will die. It’s on you. I tried my best.
        No, I’m not angry at you. I’m upset that you are so damned gullible. I’m upset that you did not listen.
        I’m upset that your kids will pay a lifelong price for your incredible stupidity. Focus on that for the rest of your lives.
        If I am angry, it’s about the corrupt politicians, big pharma, and medical authorities who knew the truth and hid it from you.
        These criminals belong in jail for life. We have land on Baffin Island that would be perfect for them.
        Regards, Allan
        ______________________________________

        SEN. RON JOHNSON SENDS LETTER TO SEC. OF DEFENSE DEMANDING INFORMATION ON SHOCKINGLY HIGH COVID-19 VACCINE INJURY AMONG MILITARY PERSONNEL
        [excerpt]
        “Based on data from the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED), Renz reported that these whistleblowers found a significant increase in registered diagnoses on DMED for miscarriages, cancer, and many other medical conditions in 2021 compared to a five-year average from 2016-2020.2 For example, at the roundtable Renz stated that registered diagnoses for neurological issues increased 10 times from a five-year average of 82,000 to 863,000 in 2021,” Sen. Johnson wrote.
        Sen. Johnson included in his letter the following medical conditions presented by Renz:
        • Hypertension – 2,181% increase
        • Diseases of the nervous system – 1,048% increase
        • Malignant neoplasms of esophagus – 894% increase
        • Multiple sclerosis – 680% increase
        • Malignant neoplasms of digestive organs – 624% increase
        • Guillain-Barre syndrome – 551% increase
        • Breast cancer – 487% increase
        • Demyelinating – 487% increase
        • Malignant neoplasms of thyroid and other endocrine glands – 474% increase
        • Female infertility – 472% increase
        • Pulmonary embolism – 468% increase
        • Migraines – 452% increase
        • Ovarian dysfunction – 437% increase
        • Testicular cancer – 369% increase
        • Tachycardia – 302% increase
        These are stunning numbers.

    4. Ray

      “Imagine a linear regression line.”

      Or imagine a linear regression line with a varying parameter. Or imagine a
      random walk with occasional random ‘reset’ shocks…Or imagine…

      Believe me, it has all been imagined ad nauseam!

      You do not have to guess at the simple regression line for the totality of the above data. Cap left off a sentence of Dr. Spencer:

      “The linear warming trend from January 1979 now stands at + 0.13 C / decade…”

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

      That is not a misprint in there – every TEN years. So the drift upwards of this metric (I do not call it temperature because that opens a whole other can of worms) has been slightly over one-thousandth of a degree C per month. This might or might not be a ‘real’ increase, but the idea that we humans can NOTICE this going on in our daily lives – unimaginably strong hurricanes, the Arctic melting under our eyes, crops failing, hundreds of millions of ‘climate refugees,’ etc. – is utterly bonkers.

      ‘Demonitized’ [sic] or ‘demonized? ‘Dr. Spencer does not have advertising on his site and I believe he is retired and well-off. so I do not imagine he will be bothered by the former; and, since he he is used to being hated and trolled, not the latter.

      UAH is NOT the only reliable source of analysis of these data. A company called Remote Sensing Systems does it but does not update as quickly as UAH:

      https://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html

      Browsing is interesting. Look at ‘Recent’ and you will see a completely flat regression line for the last five years. Switching between the signals from different layers of the atmosphere shows that the ‘warming’ is entirely confined to the lower part of the atmosphere.

      There are some differences between the analyses of UAH and RSS; and a few years ago RSS made some historical changes with a transparent purpose of supporting the global warming story. But the essential point is that, for several years now, UAH and RSS have been sticking with well-grooved algorithms and have been ‘singing from the same music sheet.’

      It is possible that the satellites will be deliberately allowed to die without replacement as they provide such inconvenient data. But that is for the future.

      In case people do not know, Dr. Spencer is ‘a warmist’ and the founder of RSS is (or was; I do not care much) a vigorous ‘CAGWist.’ So they are definitely not ‘denialists.’

  2. ~jim

    Hey Cap,
    I would love it if this proves true:

    “History has shown us time and time again that it takes a tumultuous, undeniable, world-shaking “truth” to awake the hypnotized masses from their manufactured psychosis. Perhaps global cooling will prove that truth.”

    ..but I don’t think so. This cooling earth is happening too slowly, naturally. “Science” propagandists needed two generations to convince the world that the AGW scam was real despite proven data sets to the contrary. Unless something speeds the cooling and people start connecting the dots, starting with the huge ball of fire in the sky to the snow ball in their hand, I will be skeptical of folks shrugging off the narrative.

    Great writing. Thanks for your work.

    1. HotScot

      Personally, I’d rather it weren’t proven true. The NH could do with milder winter weather to alleviate the cost of both deaths from hypothermia and the cost of keeping warm.

      It’s tragic that climate sceptics must wish for the very thing we don’t want, a colder planet, just to prove our point.

      1. Wizard

        What is tragic is that to many, until recently, myself included, the notion that CAGW is imaginary and irrelevant was absurd.

        I would have you venture a thought process:

        Colder climate means ever harder and harder to get people to line up for new absurd and irrelevant wars.Overall drop of temperature leads to drop of temperature in people’s heads, both literally and metaphorically.

        Cap had an article recently that posed a question along these lines;

        Why do we, historically, see more violent clashes and turmoil in society during periods of higher solar activity (2oth century being the most recent example, two “hot” world wars and a third “cold” world war in just the span of some 75 years)?

      2. ~jim

        Sorry, didn’t know hypothermia deaths were a big issue in NH outside of hikers on Mt Washington. My daughter and son in law have lived there the past ten years. Rural NH is where he grew up. Maybe that bump he rolled over delivering fuel oil was actually the carcass of another New Hampshirein that succumbed to hypothermia?

        Stop being so dramatic. Nobody is wishing ill either physically or financially on anyone. Thats an emotional plea, and a boring overused plea at that.

        1. I am with Jim

          Jim is right. The artificial induced increase in the cost of fuel is not a big deal for us wealthy people. Stop being dramatic because you will probably die from famine and disease, promoted by the freezing, The death of other people in New Hampshire will leave more fuel for myself and Jim.

          1. Ray

            I think NH refers to the National Health Service in the U.K.
            rather than the Live Free Or Die State!

            The NHS recognizes hypothermia as a condition equivalent to a disease:

            https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/hypothermia/

            What happens is that old people who can not afford heat ,
            or are slow to realize their danger, or develop a respiratory disease owing to their situation, simply fade away, unnoticed, until it is too late.

            It is recognized as a distinct problem.

            From the Office of National Statistics in the UK:

            “In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess deaths in England and Wales…due to the predominant strain of flu, the ineffectiveness of the influenza vaccine, and the below-average winter temperature.”

            As for ‘being dramatic’ I rather agree that shroud-waving and concentrating on emotive details is hardly the best way to analyze things. After all the retort is bound to be, “A few deaths do not matter if it saves the Planet!”

          2. LC2021

            At first I read NH = northern hemisphere, but a quick google maps places Mt Washington in New Hampshire, ya know for us ‘rest of the worlders..’

        2. Andrew Stone

          That’s “Northern Hemisphere”, Emily. 😉

          1. Ray

            NH or nh?

            In pedant world (and possibly even in Pedant World) I believe it depends on whether HotScot is thinking of ‘Northern Hemisphere ‘as the NAME of that half of the Globe , or ‘northern hemisphere’ as a vague pointer to the northwards half of the globe.

            If we are wondering whether cold snaps, like the present one, will help more people to rethink, I doubt it will be nearly enough. I am reminded of the old joke about Farmer Ben who buys a mule from Farmer Adam, and Adam says, “This mule will do anything you tell him!” Ben hitches up the mule to his wagon and says, “Go along!” The mule just stands there.

            Farmer Ben calls back Farmer Adam, “Hey! I thought you said…” Adam picks up a piece of 2 by 4 and hits the mule between the eyes ; he staggers but recovers and starts pulling.

            Adam explains, “First, get his attention!”

  3. Anonymous

    EARTH’S TEMPERATURE SAW A SHARP DROP IN JANUARY, AS DID SOLAR ACTIVITY …Really Anyone watching the Sunspot count and Solar flares in January saw an increase from previous months…Unless there is some other metric you are looking at Cap ???

    1. Cap Allon

      There’s no doubt SC25 is waking up. But Dec was much higher than Jan — the official chart provided shows that.

    2. Hammerhorn

      I am a noob, but even I understand sun spots are not linear. If you want that, than contintue to believe that a heat wave followed by a freeze is caused by global warming.

  4. Sho Wave

    The global air temperatures have dropped the last 5-6 years.

    http://climate4you.com/GlobalTemperatures.htm#Global%20temperature%20trends

    We are still in an upward trend since 1979. But again, Dr Spencer writes on his page https://www.drroyspencer.com/ — ” The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”

    Seems like he for december wrote + 0.14 C/decade.

    Tne next years development will be interesting to follow ..

    1. Matt Dalby

      I’m pretty sure that the UAH temperature anomalies this year will follow a similar pattern to last year i.e. overall cooling until May/June followed by a slight bounce back in the second half of the year. The reason I say this is that El nino/La nina is the main driver of temperature on a short time scale (Solar activity has a greater overall effect long term, but only very minimal effect on a year to year basis). Late 2020 and the end of last year both saw La nina conditions, and this takes 3-5 months to filter through into lower temperatures. The big difference between this year and last year is that the current La nina is weaker than the previous one, so could mean less cooling, but we’re starting from a lower temperature this year compared to last year.
      Obviously the Hunga-Tonga volcano is the big unknown i.e. exactly how powerful it was and how much effect it’ll have on global temperatures, but it shouldn’t affect the overall pattern, but it could change the depth of the trough in late spring and the height of the peak later in the year.
      Overall my best guess is that this year the overall temperature anomaly will be slightly lower than last year, which was 0.13 degrees, but only by a few hundredth’s of a degree, meaning that although some months will have negative anomalies we’ll have to wait a while before a whole year is below the long term average.

  5. Dallas Schneider

    Warming trend in SW Florida Sarasota County,
    over last four days went from MINUS 54 F
    (a record cold in my books) Sky Temp,
    to -18 F to 0 F to 18 F today pre-dawn.
    Rather comfortable, DS

    1. Deb

      Just wondering why you always record the sky temps, which are much lower, and for which most people have no frame of reference? Just because you can?

      I’d be a lot more interested in knowing the temp in your front yard. If it’s minus 54 there, I can extrapolate a jump in the cost of oranges.

  6. Mystic’s Mystic

    97% of the scientist don’t have the background to make assessments on the impacts of CO2 in the atmosphere. I would suggest that only a very small sample of the greater scientific group do. Governments around the world probably won’t be able to tell you what scientist are actually in
    field of science where their opinion carries weight on this issue.

  7. Deb

    I am beginning to lose confidence in these snow and cold forecast models with all the pretty colors. They may well be just pretty baubles to play with, no correlation at all with the real world. For quite awhile, they were predicting 12″ of snow for my section of MO, which I thought was pretty bizarre, as I have never seen more than about 8″. Well, the snow has come and pretty much gone. We got about 6″, judging from my front step. The forecast for the next 5-6 days is sunny, with a warming trend. So I checked the forecast model above, and lo and behold, it now says 6″.

    If we want to know what the weather/climate is doing, maybe we ought to go back to relying on what ACTUALLY happens, not some computer’s idea of what MIGHT happen.

    1. Doktor Seltsamer Wetterliebhaber

      … and lo and behold the real time divine intervention factor as well as atmospheric and ground level chaos theory over the entire state of MO can often result in the actual liquid precipitation equiv. of +/- 0.5 inches [or number of iguanas falling out of the trees in FL] difference from what the models forecast days before.

  8. Cosmic

    Here in Newfoundland, Canada it’s the warmest winter I’ve ever seen, near zero snow compared to previous years mountains of snow. Very very mild. It’s like spring arrives every two weeks.

  9. James Charles

    More ‘pressing problems’?
    ‘We’ have 16 years?

    ‘Global peak oil production may have already happened in October of 2018 (https://energyskeptic.com/2020/will-covid-19-delay-peak-oil/ Table 1). It is likely the decline rate will be 6%, increasing exponentially by +0.015% a year (see post “Giant oil field decline rates and peak oil”). So, after 16 years remaining oil production will be just 10% of what it was at the peak.’
    http://energyskeptic.com/2020/climate-change-dominates-news-coverage-at-expense-of-more-important-existential-issues/

    Or,
    ‘We’ have ten years?
    “ . . . our best estimate is that the net energy
    33:33 per barrel available for the global
    33:36 economy was about eight percent
    33:38 and that in over the next few years it
    33:42 will go down to zero percent
    33:44 uh best estimate at the moment is that
    33:46 actually the
    33:47 per average barrel of sweet crude
    33:51 uh we had the zero percent around 2022
    33:56 but there are ways and means of
    33:58 extending that so to be on the safe side
    34:00 here on our diagram
    34:02 we say that zero percent is definitely
    34:05 around 2030 . . .
    we
    34:43 need net energy from oil and [if] it goes
    34:46 down to zero
    34:48 uh well we have collapsed not just
    34:50 collapse of the oil industry
    34:52 we have collapsed globally of the global
    34:54 industrial civilization this is what we
    34:56 are looking at at the moment . . . “
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxinAu8ORxM&feature=emb_logo

    Or, have 5 years? {unlikely?}.
    “The greatest threat to humanity on Earth is the escalating Arctic atmospheric methane buildup, caused by the destabilization of subsea methane hydrates. This subsea Arctic methane hydrate destabilization will go out of control in 2024 and lead to a catastrophic heatwave by 2026.” ?
    https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/05/extinction-by-2027.html?fbclid=IwAR3FEKqILrzS_Le1Z4LRmEvqoSRz6p2rBIFjbNmY1NFB_rHeU4RpDT8u2Zg

  10. Cap, You have been added to the newsroom on the nwosurvivalguide.com and on the iceagegardener.com sites. You might want to try subscribestar where many former Patreon subs have migrated to make reoccurring donations. Keep up the great work!

  11. Max K

    Although I am a very great fan of Roy Spencer and all his work, his UAH temperature graph has one important thing in common with all the “homogenized” stuff around and the Michael Mann-made warming hockeysticks: their data show what they think (Spencer is a CO2 lukewarmer).

  12. Marks

    What is the rest of the world doing?
    In Australia’s west, capital city Perth lies near the bottom south-west corner where we do get hot dry summers of about the mid 30’s. However, while the NHem has been cold, our summer has had three spells (including Xmas-NewYear) of temps into the 40C of 5 days, 6 days (record) and 4 days since 2021 Xmas Day. This is too say a little too hot and we are forced to get most outdoor activities done in the early morning. Now I think of this as weather and climate change. Clearly breaking the run of days record of 40C is a statement and to add to this having 3 such spells is wacky but it goes someway to describing how NHem is getting very cold weather. The two hemispheres opposed but joined somehow?

    BTW we get these 40C because of the highs that travel across the Southern ocean below Australia in summer. Highs circulate anti-clockwise in the SHem to force air into the middle of Australia and out to the west (See map https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=136.42,-41.60,898/loc=46.000,16.557) So we expect easterlies in Perth to hit wirh high temperature winds.

    It will be 42C today.

  13. Ray

    “…their data show what they think…”

    Their ADJUSTMENTS show what they think. The changes introduced over the years by UAH, in the historical series, when moving from Version 1 through to Version 6, have sometimes shown more global ‘warming’ and sometimes less, as would be expected from honest striving for truth. Other people’s adjustments are somehow all one way – towards increasing the appearance of warming -and so they are suspect.

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