European Energy Prices Hit Fresh Records As “Polar Plunge” Looms
Thanks to our bumbling, echo chamber-dwelling betters at COP26, EU carbon prices hit a record Eur66/mt on November 15–the first trading day after the UN Climate Change Conference. Energy prices also witnessed a sharp uptick, driven by extreme cold weather forecasts.
The price of EU carbon dioxide allowances (EUAs) under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) closed at Eur65.93/mt — that’s a rise of 4 percent. While European gas prices ended the day above Eur80/mt — an increase of 7 percent.
As reported by spglobal.com, temperatures across much of Europe are forecast to plunge well-below seasonal average in the final week of November as a powerful Arctic front descends deep into the continent.
The latest GFS run (shown below) confirms this, and sees the mercury tumbling as much as 10C below the November norm.
Lows of -10C (14F) are set to hit the UK before the month’s end as a “snow-laden polar plunge” kick-starts what threatens to be “the worst winter since the Big Freeze of 2010,” reports the express.co.uk quoting James Madden, a forecaster for Exacta Weather.
“Waning solar activity means chances are high for a little ice age winter this year with notable periods of cold and snow,” explains Madden. “We have high confidence for the most cold and wintry conditions since Dec 2010 developing towards the end of the year. This could bring excessive cold temperatures and periods of widespread snow.”
This forecast is supported by Centrica, Britain’s top energy supplier, who has warned its 9 million customers to prepare for an icy blast that could last as long as six weeks, reports oilprice.com.
This doesn’t bode well for UK energy supplies which have already been depleted this year due to 1) last winter’s historic and long-lasting chill, and 2) failing renewables. As reported by Bloomberg, power prices in the UK soared to GBP2000 (the second highest level on record) on Monday as low wind levels exposed the market to a supply crunch.
The story is the same across much of Europe, too, as well as in transcontinental Russia. According to a note from EnergyScan: “The power spot prices soared near 230€/MWh in NW Europe, lifted by forecasts of higher demand and weak wind and solar generation.”
Rolling Power Outages Expected This Winter
Europe risks rolling power outages if there is a prolonged period of cold weather this winter — this is according to the chief executive of Trafigura, one of the world’s biggest commodity traders.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Jeremy Weir said there was still insufficient natural gas across the continent despite the promise of increased flows from Russia: “We haven’t got enough gas at the moment quite frankly. We’re not storing for the winter period. So hence there is a real concern that … if we have a cold winter that we could have rolling blackouts in Europe.”
Russia had ordered their state gas giant Gazprom to begin filling the storage facilities it controls in Germany and Austria, boosting hopes that exports to Europe would rise. However, there has been only limited increases in supply from Russia over the past week and on Monday Gazprom booked lower pipeline capacity for December, continues the FT article.
Some industries have already been forced to cut production as a result of shortages/record prices, and markets are expected to remain tight until at least the spring of 2022.
Europe is heavily reliant on gas after abandoning coal in a bid to save the unicorns from the boogeyman–or some such nonsense, but the upshot of such an extreme policy is that governments are now cutting the gas supply to non-essential industries in an attempt to maintain the electricity grid. However, Weir isn’t convinced that these measures will be enough to stave off blackouts.
The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).
Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.
Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.
Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift