The latest CFSv2 Seasonal Anomalies model for Dec-Jan-Feb 2018/19 from NOAA is giving the strong signal for an extensive low pressure across northern Europe.
Looking at the chart below, where blue equates to low pressure and yellow to high, a clear high pressure parked over Greenland is visible.
If things play out as the model suggests, that yellow area of above average heights will create a blocking effect forcing the jet stream southwards, which in turn will funnel bitterly cold Arctic air into the blue low trough sitting over the UK and Europe.
The model is an early gauge of what is likely to come and can’t be totally replied upon, considering we’re only in July. However it is very unusual for the CSF to give a pattern like this. The CFS default pattern at this point of the year shows the UK and Europe having an Atlantic driven winter weather pattern.
This latest model would indicate a stark departure from that norm and is ingraining cold air into that trough over Europe. That would suggest potentially record cold temperatures and snowfall totals.
The anomalous heatwave the UK and Western Europe is experiencing this summer is being compared to that of 1976. That winter of 1976/77 was one of the coldest on record.
See our article on the correlation between solar output in 1976 vs 2018, here.