Dr Roger Higgs: Global warming and cooling for last 2,000 years mimic Sun’s magnetic activity, not CO2

Below is a 500-word abstract for Geological Society (London) virtual conference ‘Climate Change in the Geological Record’, 26-27th May 2021 — written by Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, UK (submitted April 8, 2021).

Most scientists urge shifting to nuclear and/or renewable energy, amply justified by air pollution, dwindling fossil fuels and, many believe, global warming by CO2.

For the last 2,000 years Earth’s average surface temperature (by proxies and post-1750 thermometers) closely matches solar-magnetic output (SMO) (ice-core proxies, sunspots, neutron detectors, magnetometers), after applying a ~100-year temperature lag. Both fell for 1,000 years from ~400AD into the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1400-1900). Then SMO surged from ~1700AD (Maunder Minimum), the largest rise in 9,000 (sic) years, growing 130% in the 20th Century alone, reaching the strongest solar ‘grand maximum’ (1937-2004; peak 1991). (Contrast <0.5% parallel increase in total solar irradiance [TSI].) Temperature surged too, from the final LIA nadir ~1830 (Berkeley-HadCRUT data) to 2016, the largest warming (~1.3C) and highest peak in 2,000 years. The temperature and SMO graphs share two further characteristics, besides overall ‘hockey-stick’ shape: (A) multi-decadal up-down ‘sawteeth’, with superimposed 3-to-20-year sawteeth (longer than ENSO); and (B) surge amplitude about twice the 1,000-year decline. Three simple cross-matches confirm the ~100-year lag: (1) LIA’s three coldest peaks (~1470, 1610, 1830) mimic three SMO extreme minima (~1330, 1450, 1700); (2) the Sun’s 310AD peak (second-highest) aligns with a prominent ~450AD warm peak (with abundant geological-archaeological evidence for a ~3-metre sea-level rise in <100 years); (3) successive HadCRUT sawteeth cusps at 1910, 1945 and 1975 correspond to 1810, 1840 and 1890 (sunspot 30-year-smoothed chart).

In contrast, CO2 has six mismatches with the 2,000-year temperature profile: (1) CO2 was trendless before its modern rise from ~1850 by industrial emissions; (2) warming began (~1830, above) before CO2’s rise; (3) CO2’s rise was continuous (except seasonal sawteeth [Keeling Curve] and slight decline 1940-44), unlike very punctuated warming (supra-annual sawteeth, above; 30-year coolings 1880-1910, 1945-75; pause 1998-2013); (4) CO2 has steadily accelerated from 1944, but warming has not (after its 1975 resumption); (5) the 1975-2016 warming episode had the same gradient as the previous one (1910-45), while the CO2 gradient increased fourfold; (6) the Berkeley-HadCRUT dataset includes solar frequencies, unlike CO2. Evidently, CO2 and temperature are uncorrelated.

The foregoing evidence collectively indicates that the Sun governs global temperature, consistent with Svensmark’s SMO-cosmic ray-cloudiness theory. Volcanic mega-eruptions, commonest during exceptional SMO minima, augment solar-driven cooling (LIA “volcanic-solar downturns”). The ~100-year temperature lag is attributable to oceanic thermal inertia (high heat capacity, slow mixing). This ‘ocean-lag’, variably estimated by previous authors as 10-100 years, explains why warming persists today, despite solar weakening since 1991.

The logical conclusion is that negative feedbacks cancel CO2’s greenhouse effect. A “potentially very important” but poorly constrained natural feedback acknowledged by IPCC but omitted in their climate models is rising ‘BVOC’ aerosol emissions from forests growing faster by enhanced photosynthesis (‘CO2 fertilization’). Other IPCC climate-model errors include: assuming negligible solar influence because TSI changes are trivial (ignores SMO); and disregarding ocean lag. Further Sun-driven warming is predictable, ending ~100 years (lag) after the 1991 solar peak. Reviewers: Drs Gary Couples and Tom Moslow.

Literature sources (dozens) in ResearchGate papers 348689944, 348369922, 346792725 and 332245803.

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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift

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