Parts of the U.S. have gone from balmy summer heat to historic cold and snow in less than 24 hours. Below is a rebuttal to the mainstream position that CO2-induced ‘Arctic Amplification’ is to blame.
Alarmists claim that the Arctic is warming faster than everywhere else, and that this phenomenon is weakening the jet stream. They say the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes fuels the jet stream, and that a disproportionately warming Arctic is reducing that temperature difference, weakening the winds to favor a wavier flow:
However, at least TWO insurmountable issues arise with this theory:
Issue 1) Why is the Arctic warming faster than everywhere else?
Researchers can’t even agree on this one themselves.
However, there is a weak consensus: the Arctic’s reflectivity –albedo– is reducing due to global warming: “If the sea ice melts, that will remove that white surface off of the ocean, and what will be exposed is this darker ocean surface that will absorb more of the sun’s heat,” claims global change ecologist Isla Myers-Smith.
A simple enough theory for the layman to understand, and perhaps that’s why it was chosen. Unfortunately for the alarmists, however, it just doesn’t work. A study led by NASA’s Patrick Taylor explains why: “It was previously thought that amplified polar warming was caused by melting ice, lowering surface albedo,” says Taylor. “Surface albedo at the poles, however, is lowest in the summer, which is when we see the weakest temperature response.”
Taylor’s results suggest that summertime changes in cloud cover reflects a lot of the sun’s energy, offsetting the low surface albedo, and that it must be something else that determines the amount of warming: “The total warming at the poles is due to changes in clouds, water vapor, surface albedo and atmospheric temperature,” he says. “But there is greater warming in the winter than in the summer and that is caused by energy transport.” Taylor believes this seasonality of the polar warming is a result of energy in the atmosphere that is being transported to the poles through large weather systems, but he concludes that much more study is needed in order to fully understand the climate sensitivity.
Basically, AGW-funded scientists don’t have an answer as to why the Arctic is warming faster than everywhere else, but the politics demands a consensus — the science must provide policy makers with all the answers, and all the answers must read ‘human CO2 emissions’.
And while it is generally accepted that the Arctic is indeed warming –slightly– this is more than likely in line with the historically low solar activity we’re currently receiving rather than the agenda-driving multi-tool that is AGW.
Low Solar Activity, Cooling, and the Jet Stream
Using NASA’s Maunder Minimum Temperature Reconstruction Map (shown below), it is revealed that while Earth’s overall temperature trends colder during a times of low solar activity, not ALL regions experience the chill — some areas of the planet actually warm during spells of otherwise “global” cooling: the Arctic, Alaska, and S. Greenland/N. Atlantic to name a few.
Research led by Mike Lockwood, a solar-terrestrial physicist at the University of Reading, UK, found that periods of low solar activity are associated with changes in the jet stream, and that, specifically, a quieter sun means colder winters for Europe.
According to Lockwood, a cooling of the stratosphere –as occurs during periods of low solar activity– allows the jet streams to shift towards the Equator. This has a profound effect on European weather by causing the northern jet stream to effectively block warmer maritime air from reaching the continent from the Atlantic Ocean, and this in turn opens the door to cold, northeasterly winds to drive anomalously-far south from Russia and the Arctic.
Lockwood’s research, which compared 350 years of central England temperature data with astronomical observations of sunspots, puts wavy jet streams firmly at the feet of low solar activity –and not global warming– with weather records from as far back as 1650–1700 confirming the pattern. This era, known as the Maunder minimum, was a time when the Sun was virtually sunspot-free and frost fairs were held on the River Thames: “Early instrumental records show that those cold winters were accompanied by cold winds from the east,” explained Lockwood — a theory supported by Mikhaël Schwander, et al, 2017: “The zonal flow characteristic of westerly types is reduced under low solar activity as the continental flow for easterly and northerly types is enhanced. This is also confirmed by the higher blocking frequency over Scandinavia under low solar activity.” And Schwander goes further: “The 247-year-long analysis of the 11-year solar cycle impact on late winter European weather patterns suggests a reduction in the occurrence of westerly flow types linked to a reduced mean zonal flow under low solar activity. Based on this observational evidence, we estimate the probability to have cold conditions in winter over Europe to be higher under low solar activity than under high activity.”
Issue 2) Why isn’t a similar phenomenon occurring in Antarctica?
Modern climate science states that “because the Earth’s polar regions are warming more quickly than the rest of the world, the temperature contrast that drives jet streams has decreased” which makes for a weak and wavy jet stream flow. However, satellite data reveals that sea ice extent around the southern pole has actually GROWN over the past 40+years, and also shows that temperatures across the continent have had no real trend.
According to the AGW ‘Polar Amplification’ theory, Antarctica should be mirroring the trends seen in the Arctic: warming global temperatures should be melting sea ice exposing the darker sea beneath, absorbing the heat and increasing temperatures — but this simply isn’t happening. Furthermore, polar outbreaks in the southern hemisphere –a wavy jet stream– are also on the increase, just as they are in its northern counterpart.
There are many, many more issues that cast doubt on the AGW theory, including ocean circulation cycles and an influx of cloud-nucleating cosmic rays. But I’ll finish with images and facts re North America’s ongoing historic September cold and snow, which –as historical documentation and science has shown us– is due to the impact low solar activity has on the jet stream and not the build-up of a trace gas in the atmosphere (for more click the link below).
Rapid City, SD saw its the earliest measurable snowfall on record on Tuesday.
The area also set a new low temperature record when the mercury in downtown Rapid City dropped to 31 degrees — this beat-out the previous record of 34 degrees set back in 1929.
The past few days busted an all-time U.S. record, too:
Furthermore, and as reported by bismarcktribune.com, the temperature near the small North Dakota town of Alamo dropped to 18 degrees at 7:08 a.m. Tuesday — that is the lowest temperature ever to hit in the state on Sept 8.
The snowstorm also broke a record in Casper, Wyoming: the Oil City saw its earliest measurable snowfall on record with 2.3 inches accumulating by midnight Monday. According to the NSW, Casper’s previous earliest measurable snowfall occurred on Sept 8, 1962.
Cheyenne tied their record for earliest measurable snowfall on Tuesday as the storm did not produce measurable snow before midnight Monday. However, the city did surpass the 0.8 inches recorded back on Sept 8, 1929, and received more than an inch which beat Cheyenne’s all-time record set while William McKinley was President back on Sept 10, 1898.
Hundreds of all-time cold records have fallen over the past few days.
Stay tuned for an update.
The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, all in line with with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow; and both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA admitting we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.
Prepare for the COLD— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
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Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift