The most up-to-date CFSv2 forecast for region 3.4 of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean reveals that a dramatic flip from the current El Niño setup (warming) to a La Niña one (cooling) is on the cards, beginning mid-to-late summer (NH) 2019.
The below chart reveals where the CFSv2 had the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) for region 3.4 just a month ago.
Early June’s forecast had the black-dash line persisting with a weak El Niño setup through the rest of 2019 and into the early part of 2020:
But how things have changed in a month.
The most recent CFSv2 forecast now shows that black-dash line has shifted dramatically towards La Niña territory, and has this persisting through the remainder of 2019 and into 2020:
What’s also noteworthy is that CSFv2 readings usually tend to favour warm events.
It’s worth paying extra-attention when this particular model forecasts anything cold.
La Niña’s are associated with much cooler global temperatures.
Furthermore, as we’ve touched-on in the past, if you take out the El Niño (warming) spikes, global average temperatures have remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of the satellite era:
Once this current El Niño moves on and is replaced with even a weak La Niña, we can expect the UAH (above) to show a continuation of the sharp cool-down that began at the end of 2015/16’s record super El Niño — below baseline readings by the end of 2019 are a realistic possibility.
The NH’s winter of 2019/20 is shaping up to be a doozy.
Stay tuned for updates.
The earth is once again cooling, in line with low solar activity.
NASA predicts the sun’s next solar cycle (25) will be the weakest of the past 200 years:
The cold times are returning.
Grand Solar Minimum + Pole Shift