Canada is to export nearly 2 million mt less wheat than estimated after one of the most challenging growing seasons in living memory.
Wheat farmers were inundated with early October snow and extensive moisture which cut this year’s production estimate by nearly 500,000 mt from earlier forecasts to 31 million mt.
Production is still 1 million mt higher than last year as the planted area boomed 9%, although yields slipped 5% and meant that was not able to translate into a large production increase.
The wheat crop struggled in 2018/19, “after an unusually long winter … rapidly followed by an exceptionally dry and hot May and prolonged periods of dryness throughout July and August … led to stunting and lower yields overall,” the USDA said.
Total wheat exports are pegged at 22.1 million mt – close to last year’s figure but down from earlier 24 million mt estimates – adding to lower global trade after unfavourable weather cut production in other major exporters.
The USDA cut estimated barley production 8% to 8.2 million mt, due to a “lack of timely precipitation that reduced wheat yields” while noting an increase in demand from the feed industry.
That in turn will take barley exports down to 1.8 million mt from the earlier view of 2.2 million mt.
The Grand Solar Minimum’s intensification is already having an impact on global food production.
Expect higher prices and even shortages in the near future.