Articles 

A Novel Look at Global Hurricane Data Reveals No Trend

Experienced data analyst, 10-year Wall Street veteran, and self-proclaimed “Mrs. Smarty Pants”, Zoe Phin of phzoe.com takes a look at the alarmists’ claim that “increasing CO2 emissions are leading to more frequent and intense hurricanes”.

Phin has already dealt with this re Atlantic hurricanes (linked here), and she found no trend.

Today, she analyzes the global data.

It is definitely true that the number of detected hurricanes has increased, writes Phin on her blog.

This is due to better sensing technology.

But aside from detection, there is also a matter of how one counts the frequency of hurricanes.

Does it make sense to count a 6-hour Category 3 storm the same as a 42-hour Category 3 storm?

“Storm 1” and “Storm 2” are bot classified as Category 3, but the Cat3 status is unequal in time.


No! It’s doesn’t make sense. Such a thing would be misleading. But that is exactly what climate alarmists do.

A better thing to do, continues Phin, would be to count the hours spent in certain wind speed categories.

And this is exactly what she did.

So, below are the results from the best hurricane data in the world.

[Note, 10yr CMA means 10-Year Centered Moving Average]

Category 1 is cyclic/no-trend:


Category 2 had increased, but dropped during the past 25 years:


Category 3 had increased, but dropped during the past 25 years; while Category 4 is cyclic/no-trend:


And Category 5 has actually DECREASED:


Featured below is the combined data for category 1,2,3,4,5 hurricanes.

Overall, it reveals no trend — just natural, cyclic motions:


Zoe Phin’s results will come as no surprise to those privy to the actual data, rather than just the bleats of the IPCC and their propagandizing MSM lapdogs — and a host of other leading scientists have reached the same conclusions: that is, that hurricanes have not been getting stronger or more frequent.

For example, here’s Klotzbach et al (2018):


And here’s NOAA’s Dr. Ryan Maue, who cites Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. re global cyclone activity since 1970:


The alarmists’ claim is that greenhouse gases create more energy for hurricanes, writes Phin.

Well, she asks, where exactly is all that extra energy for hurricanes?


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.


Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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4 Thoughts to “A Novel Look at Global Hurricane Data Reveals No Trend”

  1. Matt Dalby

    The data presented by Zoe Phin seems somewhat redundant, sorry Zoe, as Ryan Maue presents a lot of data at http://www.climatlas.com/tropical/ and accounts for issues such as the longevity of storms by calculating the accumulated cyclone energy. Obviously using this measure a storm that is, say, category 3 for several days will have higher energy than a storm that only reaches category 3 for a couple of hours. Ryan’s data shows no overall trend, but massive variability from year to year. Therefore it’s possible for AGW alarmists to claim that there has been a massive increase in the number or intensity of hurricanes by cherry picking the start and end points of the data they present.
    I think that Ryan is correct to only show data from 1970 onwards, as before then there was much less data available due to the lack of sattelites and hurricane hunter aircraft, meaning that pre 1970 data under estimates the number and intensity of hurricanes.

    1. Thank you. Yes, I’m aware of Ryan Maue’s greart work. The problem is that I don’t know how to easily duplicate it. I also don’t understand how his units (knots^2) are actually energy. While velocity^2 is part of energy, mass is missing.

      For these reasons, I don’t think my work is redundant. I also provide full source code to download, extract, calculate and plot the official data.

      1. Matt Dalby

        Presumably the units used by Ryan are largely proportion to energy, since the mass of the air only varies slightly due to changes in pressure. Presumably the mass of a given volume of air can vary depending on the relative humidity, but in a hurricane/tropical storm the relative humidity is always close to 100% so variations make very little difference.
        I have to admit that I’m only a lay person with no scientific qualifications, which is why I couldn’t see a major difference between the results you presented and the data presented by Ryan. I’m also pretty sure that most other lay people will not understand the technical differences, hence I still think Ryan’s data set is more than sufficient to rebut alarmist claims that hurricanes are increasing in strength due to global warming.

  2. Howard Huston

    can you add Freetalk45.com to your addition of Facebook and twitter. That is an One America News and your information wont be canceled of restrictive.

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